UFC Fight Night 254: Main Card Predictions

Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze remain determined in their pursuit of UFC gold as they headline a stacked card at the UFC Apex on March 15. UFC Fight Night 254—also known as UFC Vegas 104—takes place nearly two years after their first meeting inside the octagon. With both fighters eager to climb the rankings, this rematch could be a pivotal moment in the middleweight division.

Check out our staff predictions for UFC Fight Night 254:

Featherweight Bout

Su Young You vs. AJ Cunningham

Rags: Su Young You, nicknamed “Yoo-Jitsu,” earned his UFC contract through the Road to UFC tournament. He brings a well-rounded skill set into his UFC debut. Meanwhile, AJ Cunningham looks to rebound from a short-notice debut loss, after refining his game at Factory X. While Cunningham has a solid submission arsenal, his striking remains a work in progress, which could be a key factor in this matchup.

Prediction: Su Young You via Unanimous Decision

Dawson: Su Young You makes his UFC debut against Austin Cunningham. You, 29, put together three straight decision wins in his on Road to UFC. He now has an opportunity to make a statement with a finish over Cunningham in this big career moment. Cunningham, 30, will be best served by getting this fight to the ground. You holds the advantage in footwork. He also has better hand speed and power.

Prediction: Su Young You via Unanimous Decision

Bantamweight Bout

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson

Rags: Cody Gibson, the TUF 31 runner-up, looks to continue his win streak and his assent up the bantamweight rankings. However, he faces a dangerous grappler in Da’Mon Blackshear. He one of the few fighters to secure a twister submission in the UFC. With Blackshear’s high-level ground game, his ability to find submissions could be the difference in this fight.

Prediction: Da’Mon Blackshear via Submission

Dawson: Fans can expect this fight to hit the canvas as both men hold formidable grappling abilities. Gibson, 37, came up short against Brad Katona in the finale of TUF 31 at UFC 292 in August 2023. He lost his following fight with Miles Johns. However, he did not let this rough reintroduction to the promotion deter him. He now rides a two-fight win streak coming into this bout. Both fighters are willing to grapple. They will likely move the action to the ground. Blackshear, 30, will eventually capitalize on an opportunity to secure a choke.

Prediction: Da’Mon Blackshear via Submission

Lightweight Bout

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Rags: Kurt Holobaugh, the TUF 31 winner, dominated throughout the season but struggled in his UFC re-debut. He now faces Alexander Hernandez, a 14-fight UFC veteran that has trouble with inconsistency. But, he’s dangerous and has a well-rounded skill set. If Hernandez is back on one of his hot streaks, his experience and well-rounded game could prove too much for Holobaugh.

Prediction: Alexander Hernandez via KO/TKO

Dawson: UFC matchmakers crafted an exciting lightweight bout. Since his jaw-dropping debut against Beneil Dariush at UFC 222 back on March 3, 2018, Hernandez has struggled to find his groove within the lightweight division. Now 1-2 in his last three fights, he desperately needs stability, given his recent track record. On the other hand, Holobaugh has been 3-1 since returning to the UFC. Looking at the actual fight, I see Holobaugh’s composed striking, which gives him an advantage. His respectable submission threat may also help him win the nod on the scorecards after three hard-fought rounds.

Prediction: Kurt Holobaugh via Split Decision

Featherweight Bout

Kevin Vallejos vs. Seung Woo Choi

Rags: At just 23 years old, Kevin Vallejos makes his UFC debut after securing his contract with a win on Contender Series in his second attempt. Across the cage, Seung Woo Choi may be underestimated due to his 4-6 UFC record. But, his opponents quickly learn why he’s called “Sting.” With Choi’s durability and striking prowess, Vallejos will need to prove he belongs at this level against a tough, battle-tested veteran.

Prediction: Seung Woo Choi via Unanimous Decision

Dawson: The featherweight division potentially has another star. The young Argentinian knockout artist Kevin Vallejos takes on South Korean UFC veteran Seung Woo Choi. Vallejos first appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2023, suffering a unanimous decision defeat to UFC rising star Jean Silva. After this defeat, the power puncher went 2-0 on the regional scene. He would eventually get a second chance on the show in September 2024. Vallejos made sure to capitalize on this second chance as he scored an emphatic first-round TKO.

Prediction: Kevin Vallejos via KO/TKO

Welterweight Co-Main Event

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Chidi Njokuani

Rags: Two knockout artists collide as “Capoeira” Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos takes on Chidi “Bang Bang” Njokuani. This fight promises fireworks. Dos Santos is coming off his first finish since 2019 and first KO since 2018, showing he still has power to end the night early. Meanwhile, Njokuani is back in the win column, but eager to secure his first finish since 2022. With both fighters known for their striking, this matchup could come down to who lands clean first. I think that ends up being Njokuani.

Prediction: Chidi Njokuani via Split Decision

Dawson: This battle between MMA veterans promises a thrilling show. This main card matchup has the makings of a performance bonus written all over it. That said, the 36-year-old Njokuani will have to fight backward. He must deal with the versatile attacks of the well-experienced Brazilian dos Santos. The sharp striker has struggled with pressure fighters in the past. Dos Santos will adopt this approach for his game plan. This fight will depend on whether Njokuani can keep his back off and away from the cage. He needs to maintain space to strike with dos Santos effectively.

Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via Unanimous Decision

Middleweight Main Event

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

Rags: Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze run it back after their first meeting at UFC 286. Vettori secured a unanimous decision win in their first fight. While Dolidze has been the more active fighter since then, Vettori remains a championship-level talent, even after a layoff since 2023. Unless Dolidze has made significant improvements, it’s hard to see the rematch playing out much differently.

Prediction: Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision

Dawson: An unexpected rematch takes place within the middleweight division. These two crossed paths in what played out as three rounds of kickboxing between the two grapplers. Vettori was able to edge out a decision over Dolidze narrowly. He did this thanks to using low kicks in the striking exchanges. Nothing has changed from the two middleweights compared to their first clash. Vettori will look to shrug off ring rust as his last appearance inside the cage came in June 2023. Conversely, Dolidze has gone 2-1 since his fight with Vettori. Expect this fight to look similar to the first. Vettori will aim to circle the cage on his back foot. He will mix a stiff jab and a low kick to Dolidze’s lead leg. Dolidze will try to walk down Vettori. He aims to avoid Vettori’s jab and land his power punches in the pocket.

Prediction: Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision

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About Post Author

Connor Rogowsky

Connor “Rags” Rogowsky is a Co-Founder of The Scrap, where he contributes MMA content and occasionally delves into the world of pro wrestling. A former collegiate athlete in football and track, Connor pairs his sports experience with academic expertise to the pieces he writes. He holds a Master of Science in Psychology from Southern New Hampshire University.

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Dawson Carrell

Dawson Carrell is a Combat Sports Writer with over two years of experience covering MMA, Boxing, and the broader fight game. Known for his in-depth analysis and sharp insight, Dawson enjoys breaking down the tactics, techniques, and personalities that shape the fight game.

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