UFC 316: Main Card Predictions
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UFC 316 is back in New Jersey for its explosive tenth visit to Newark’s Prudential Center on May 7. This blockbuster event features two electrifying world title fights that promise to light up the arena and screens everywhere.
The men’s bantamweight championship rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley is set to deliver fireworks. In the co-main event, Julianna Peña looks to silence doubters in her title defense against Kayla Harrison.
With the main card rapidly approaching, get ready and check out our bold predictions for what’s sure to be an unforgettable night of MMA action:
Bantamweight Championship
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O’Malley (1)
Marcos: Unfortunately for Sean, there are no adjustments he can make that will slow down Merab’s fighting style. O’Malley’s best chance lies in maintaining constant movement while seeking opportunities for a significant strike. As a dynamic striker, Sean could potentially exploit openings in Merab’s striking; therefore, Merab must exercise caution. Nevertheless, he will still be countered by the champion’s relentless takedowns and pressure. The momentum of both fighters is trending in opposite directions. With O’Malley returning from a brief hiatus and Merab recently defeating a fighter considered unbeatable at 135 pounds. I anticipate an outcome similar to their first encounter.
Official Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision
Lee: I normally don’t do this, but this might be the biggest fight in Sean O’Malley’s career. The reason is I think this could be O’Malley’s last chance to reclaim the bantamweight title. He’s pulling out all the stops, bringing in Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and former middleweight champ Israel Adesanya to train at his custom-built gym and maximize his preparation.In their last encounter, Dvalishvili was nonstop with his wrestling pressure and O’Malley had no defense. Johnson’s supreme grappling and wrestling skills make him the perfect coach to help O’Malley fix his biggest weakness. All that being said, Merab’s cardio and constant pressure is a real problem for his opponents as the fighter goes deeper. They seem to wilt as he tends to get stronger and there is no training for that. One thing that we need to keep an eye on is this lingering cut above the champ’s eye. Will this be an issue in this championship rematch?
Official Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision
Women’s Bantamweight Championship
Julianna Peña (c) vs. Kayla Harrison (2)
Marcos: With all due respect to Julianna Peña, I believe she’ll be thoroughly outmatched in every area of the fight. The champion’s only advantage may lie in her experience and toughness, particularly if the match extends into the later rounds. We have observed Kayla struggle against opponents who are resilient enough to engage in a tough contest. Peña must aim to transform this into a gritty, hard-fought battle. Julianna’s performance against Amanda Nunes’ strength has increased my confidence in her ability to compete against a strong bantamweight like Kayla. However, from a skill and technique perspective, Kayla Harrison is considerably ahead of Peña. I favor her striking, grappling, and nearly every other aspect of the fight.
Official Prediction: Kayla Harrison via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I actually think Peña is a bit of a live dog in this one. As Marcos mentioned, the more ugly this fight is, the more it plays into her advantage. The weight cut to 135 pounds clearly impacts and diminishes Harrison, there’s no arguing that. So if Julianna can turn this into a gritty, knock down, drag out, brawl, and get this fight into the later rounds, an upset could be more likely than most expect. The champion can take advantage of a depleted version of the two-time Olympic gold medalist, and maybe can drown her in a firefight. With that being said, I have to favor Kayla in this matchup. Between her physicality, clinch grappling, top control, and vicious ground-and-pound, I don’t see Julianna being able to deter any of those things. I feel Harrison will maul Peña up against the fence, utilizing her elite judo to score multiple takedowns, and eventually finding a path to a finish at some point.
Official Prediction: Kayla Harrison via 2nd or 3rd-Round TKO
Middleweight Bout
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Lee: Heading into this matchup, one thing’s for sure—this fight won’t be a snoozer. Kelvin Gastelum always brings the heat, and Joe Pyfer better be ready for a war. Gastelum has faced elite competition at middleweight, so there’s little he hasn’t seen inside the Octagon. Pyfer, the rising prospect, will need to utilize his 4-inch reach advantage to keep the heavy-handed Gastelum at bay. Smart movement—especially circling away from Gastelum’s dangerous left hand—will be key as he looks to land his own power shots. While Pyfer lacks the experience, sometimes the young lion roars earlier than expected.
Official Prediction: Joe Pyfer via Split Decision
Evan: I personally think Joe Pyfer is a pretty overrated fighter. He’s physically imposing for sure, but much of his game is predicated on power rather than technique. I believe Lee is right though, he needs to use his reach and size advantage to control the range. If he can do that, I definitely see a path where he’s stalking Kelvin down, consistently tagging and pulling him into big shots. However, from a statistical standpoint, these two are pretty evenly matched in almost every category. I feel Gastelum’s experience, speed, and bladed stance, leap in style of boxing, might give Pyfer more problems than anticipated. Ultimately, I also side with the younger New Jersey product to pull out the victory here.
Official Prediction: Joe Pyfer via Unanimous Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Mario Bautista (10) vs. Patchy Mix
Marcos: Patchy Mix is undoubtedly the superior grappler, despite Bautista’s proficiency in submissions. Mix’s ability to execute chain submissions on the ground is likely to be overwhelming for the #10-ranked contender. Additionally, the UFC experience will not pose a challenge. Mix’s seven-fight win streak has been equally impressive in terms of the caliber of opponents faced. However, Mix will face challenges, as Bautista’s precise striking and cage control may complicate the fight. If Bautista is able to maintain the fight in a standing position, he is likely to secure a victory. One can anticipate that the newcomer will strive to make a significant impact in his debut against an opponent who has previously been submitted.
Official Prediction: Patchy Mix via 2nd-Round Submission
Lee: The UFC didn’t do Patchy Mix—former Bellator Bantamweight Champion—any favors for his debut. He’s thrown straight into the fire against Mario Bautista, who enters on a 7-fight win streak and climbing the bantamweight ranks fast. Mix, recently released from the PFL, brings his own 8-fight streak and elite grappling into the Octagon. Bautista’s crisp striking will be tested against Mix’s dominant ground game. With a year-long layoff, Mix needs to start fast—this isn’t the opponent to shake off ring rust against. Can Mix’s world-class grappling overcome Bautista’s striking finesse?
Official Prediction: Mario Bautista via Unanimous Decision
Welterweight Bout
Vicente Luque (14) vs. Kevin Holland
Marcos: Anticipate a fast-paced, yet intense contest in which Holland is likely to control the outcome due to his advantages in reach and striking. For Luque to secure a victory, he must effectively close the distance and integrate takedown attempts with his striking. While Luque possesses the ability to achieve a submission, I favor Holland’s enhanced defensive grappling in this matchup. Luque’s recent struggles on the feet, paired with Holland’s growing success at welterweight, give Holland a clear edge. Expect him to disrupt Luque’s rhythm with sharp jabs and straight rights—potentially setting up a finish.
Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: This fight is really difficult for me to predict because these two fighters are very similar, and at a sort of crossroads in their respective careers. Both are in their early thirties, have good power, submission skills, and finishing instincts. Neither one of them though looks like they will ever be serious title contenders at this point either. So it’s hard to differentiate the two in this matchup. If Luque can secure early takedowns and hurt Holland early, I feel his path to victory is very clear in that scenario. However, I agree with Marcos in that I believe Kevin has enough defensive wrestling to nullify any of Vicente’s offensive grappling attacks. I think his length, ranginess, and counter right hand on the feet should give the Brazilian veteran some real issues too. Regardless, I expect a fun main card opening scrap between two aging, yet capable action fighters. But I’m also picking Holland as well to get the win by way of finish.
Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
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