UFC 312: Main Card Predictions
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UFC will host its 19th event in Australia as UFC 312 goes down on Saturday, February 8th. A high-stakes championship rematch is set to headline the night in the promotion’s second pay-per-view of 2025.
The UFC middleweight champion, Dricus Du Plessis makes his second title defense against former champion, Sean Strickland. With an additional title bout as well as a decent undercard, this should be an interesting night of fights at the Qudos Bank Arena.
UFC Middleweight Championship
Dricus Du Plessis (C) vs. Sean Strickland (1)
Marcos: Both men have not changed much since their first meeting, so I expect a very similar fight. Strickland has a style that can dictate fights, meaning Du Plessis has to keep the pressure on to throw him off. Strickland has to solidify his takedown defense because he lost the first meeting due to a few key takedowns. Unfortunately for Sean, I think DDP is starting to come into his own, as many do after becoming champion. Dricus will use his strength to take Sean down again, while doing enough damage in his blitz entries to earn a decision. You can expect a very close fight once again.
Official Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis via Split Decision
Evan: This is a tricky matchup to decipher. I agree though with a lot of what Marcos said. I don’t think either guy has changed much since their first meeting, and Du Plessis has really started to find his confidence as a champion. His game might not be the prettiest, but the dude just seemingly always finds a way to win. With that being said, I’m hesitantly going to pick against him once again. What gave DDP the slightest edge in the first matchup was really the wrestling. According to UFC Stats, he went 6/11 on his takedown attempts. But he only managed 2:08 of control time with those takedowns, and didn’t do much with them. I expect Strickland to nullify those even more this time around, and subdue Du Plessis’s blitzing offense with his methodical defense. I see Sean’s death by a thousand paper cuts style wearing on the South African champ, allowing him to get revenge in what will be a razor close gritty second showdown.
Official Prediction: Sean Strickland via Split Decision
UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship
Zhang Weili (C) vs. Tatiana Suarez (1)
Lee: This could be the strawweight champion’s hardest title defense, facing the undefeated Tatiana Suarez. Zhang has become a much more well-rounded fighter since partnering with Henry Cejudo to up her ground game. She will need to show off her improved takedown defense and precision striking to walk away with a win over the technical savvy Suarez. The challenger will need to force the champ to fight in a phone booth. If Suarez can take Zhang down, she must maintain top control against the improved ground game of the champ. The fighter that can win the exchanges in close distance is going to win.
Official Prediction: Zhang Weili via 4th-Round KO/TKO
Dawson: Zhang faces arguably the most formidable stylistic challenge of her career. The well-rounded champion must display superb takedown defense on the relentless wrestler. Once Suarez realizes the takedowns are difficult to secure, the fight will become a lot more uncomfortable and dangerous. Zhang will prioritize her boxing over low kicks to avoid Suarez’s potential takedown threat. There will be moments in the fight where Zhang reverses a takedown on Suarez and assumes the top position. Suarez’s gas tank and mental toughness will be tested throughout five rounds as Zhang keeps coming forward, delivering hard punches, knees, and elbows. The challenger will start to slow down and become sloppy in initiating her offense, resulting in a definitive decision win for Zhang.
Official Prediction: Zhang Weili via Unanimous Decision
Heavyweight Bout
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
Marcos: Tafa and Teixeira both possess solid boxing with some power to go with it. Tafa certainly has more experience now as a UFC vet, while Teixeira has not fought anyone of note in the lead-up to his debut. So this is a fairly hard fight to predict when you consider that Teixeira has really never been tested in his career. Regardless, I am going to ride with Tallison Teixeira’s athleticism as he evades Tafa’s power en route to a victory. If Texeira can avoid the damage, he will use his superior skill set to find the finish against someone who is not a world beater. Quite the underwhelming matchup for a PPV.
Official Prediction: Tallison Teixeira via 2nd-Round KO
Evan: Marcos is spot on with saying this is an underwhelming matchup. Especially to feature on the main card of a PPV. This fight is an indictment on the quality of not only this card… But also the current state of the heavyweight division as a whole. I don’t really view either one of these fighters as all that impressive. Tafa’s a brawler who has good durability and power. He’s got the experience edge as well, but Teixeira is the more versatile, younger fighter of the two. I’ll side with the Brazilian in this one to win exchanges at a distance with his nine-inch reach advantage, and more dynamic skills. Although, I wouldn’t be shocked by a Tafa knockout victory either, given how unproven Teixeira is.
Official Prediction: Tallison Teixeira via 2nd-Round TKO or Submission
Light Heavyweight Bout
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Lee: Jimmy Crute and Rodolfo Bellato will both be making long-awaited returns to the octagon. Both last fought in 2023. Bellato is riding a four-fight win streak. Crute on the other hand, is coming off a submission loss to Alonzo Menifield. Crute has had only one of his ten fights go to the scorecards. Bellato is a finisher too, none of his fights have been decided by the judges. Both fighters are currently unranked. But with a win, I could see Bellato jumping into the top 15. Crute with a win would warrant a top 15 opponent next. This fight should be a banger.
Official Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Dawson: Fight fans are in for a treat with this light heavyweight matchup. The Brazilian Bellato looks to extend his four-fight win streak and climb the ladder. As for Crute, the Aussie is at a rough patch in his UFC run. His last win came four years ago and he’s ultimately fighting for his roster spot. That said, the fresher and more momentous Bellato will be looking to make a statement with a win over Crute. Both fighters will look to exchange low kicks in the center of the octagon early on. Bellato will be looking to come forward and overpower Crute against the cage. Expect a firefight to break out with Crute’s back to the cage. If Bellato fails to find the finish with his hands on the feet, he will begin looking to level change and get Crute to the canvas. This fight has a high likelihood of turning gritty and bloody with both fighters scrambling for advantageous positions.
Official Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Welterweight Bout
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Marcos: Jake Matthews must constantly engage in the takedowns if he has any chance to win here. The longer it stays standing, the more I favor Francisco Prado and his striking. The biggest question to me in this fight is… Can Jake Matthews weather the early storm on the feet? If not, it may be a long night for the betting favorite. I would still favor Jake’s cardio and durability to get it done. Francisco Prado has a tendency to slow down, and I think that will be the moment for Matthews to step on the gas. If we get an early finish it will likely be Prado. If it goes the distance, it should be Matthew’s victory. This has the potential to be a Fight of the Night candidate.
Official Prediction: Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This definitely feels like it will be a fun fight, but it also doesn’t interest me a ton. Matthews is a veteran with a quality, well-rounded game. Whereas Prado is a scrappy power puncher, who possesses some solid submission ability too. Marcos said it best, if Jake can weather the storm early, he should be able to eventually take over. However, if this turns into a brawl on the feet, I’d favor Francisco’s doggedness to give him the edge. I think the 22-year-old Argentine’s inability to stuff takedowns and willingness to take damage will be his downfall though. I’ll side with Matthews to get the job done primarily behind his superior grappling skills.
Official Prediction: Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision
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