UFC 310: Main Card Predictions
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The UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for what will be the final PPV of 2024. It has been another great year of business for the promotion. They will look to finish off strong with UFC 310 on December 7th.
UFC Flyweight Champion, Alexandre Pantoja, will defend his title for the third time against former RIZIN World Champion, Kai Asakura. Asakura will have the rare privilege of making his UFC debut in a championship fight. The rest of the main card includes top names such as Cirly Gane, Ian Garry, and Bryce Mitchell.
UFC Flyweight Championship
Alexandre Pantoja (C) vs. Kai Asakura
Evan: This fight is a bit of a wildcard. Pantoja has been in nothing but dog fights, especially since becoming champion. His last three matchups against Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, and Steve Erceg were all rugged, gritty 25-minute affairs. You’ve got to think that at some point these types of battles are going to catch up to him. There’s no denying though that he should have a pretty significant grappling edge over the debuting Asakura here. Given his relentless pursuit of takedowns, suffocating back control, exhausting pace in the scrambles, and overall doggedness… Pantoja’s style can be a nightmare to deal with.
If he’s able to secure consistent takedowns, the former RIZIN champion could be in for a long night. However, I’m going to side with Asakura in this one. I believe his takedown defense will be far more stingy than some are giving him credit for. Plus, he’s got the dynamism, creativity, and power on the feet to get the job done here. I’ll take the Japanese KO artist in what should be a brutal fight.
Official Prediction: Kai Asakura via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Lee: Very seldom does a fighter make his or her debut in the UFC with a title fight. Kai Asakura will be doing that while headlining a PPV event when he challenges Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title. Asakura is top notch with his striking. But Pantoja, who has a background in Muay Thai, thinks he can hang with Asakura on the feet. Pantoja feels he has an advantage going into this fight because he trains with Kyoji Horiguchi and Yuki Motoya… Both have fought Kai Asakura. But, the UFC champ will have his hands full with the complex puzzle that is Asakura.
Official Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Pantoja only tends to struggle against elite-level wrestlers and not typically strikers. That being said, Asakura is perhaps the most dangerous and creative striker that Pantoja has ever faced. Kai Asakura’s lack of experience against quality wrestlers makes this even more difficult to decipher. Not to mention the fact that he has never weighed in at 125 pounds. It could also be a long night for the promotional newcomer if his unproven takedown defense cannot hold up. Somehow, I believe Asakura will overcome the odds and knockout the world champion with his unique striking attack.
Official Prediction: Kai Asakura via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Welterweight Bout
Shavkat Rakhmonov (3) vs. Ian Garry (7)
Evan: For all the cuck jokes the internet has made at Ian Garry’s expense over the past year, I’m not sure how anyone can hate on him now. The brash Irishman accepting a fight with the welterweight division’s version of the “boogeyman” in Shavkat Rakhmonov on short notice no less, should be respected and applauded by all. I also believe Garry is going to be way more competitive in this fight than many expect.
His footwork, elusiveness, and kicking arsenal could frustrate Rakhmonov, especially early on. The fact he’s got sparring experience against Shavkat too benefits Garry from not being so mystified by the offensive juggernaut he will be across from. However, I can’t bet against Rakhmonov. His technical versatility combined with some of the best finishing instincts in the sport, should be tough for Garry to deal with. Spending 25 minutes in the Octagon with Shavkat, without getting finished, is a tough task for anyone at welterweight. Look for the Kazakh star to brutalize Ian up against the cage in the clinch. Eventually, he’ll secure a victory by some sort of stoppage.
Official Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov via 3rd-Round TKO or Submission
Lee: Shavkat Rakhmonov has more to lose in this fight. He was set to fight for the title and if he loses, he’ll most likely lose his title shot. Ian Garry is stepping into fight in unfamiliar territory as the underdog. But, it shows his willingness to fight the best. If he wins he will most likely step into the cage opposite Belal Muhammad for the welterweight title. Although these combatants have trained together and are familiar with the other, someone’s ‘0’ has got to go.
Official Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov via 4th-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: Don’t let the odds or public opinion fool you; this is a very even matchup. Shavkat really needs to utilize his versatility and not just engage in a striking contest. Ian Garry’s range and movement make him far more difficult to finish than anyone Rakmonov has ever faced. The Irishman needs to step out of his comfort zone and take some rare risks if he wants to defeat his toughest opponent to date. I think Shavkat is the more dangerous fighter of the two and has more tools to get it done. Unfortunately for Ian Garry, he will finally run into someone who is just flat out better than him. These days it is not a question of if Rakmonov will finish you, but when?
Official Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov via 5th-Round Submission
Heavyweight Bout
Ciryl Gane (2) vs. Alexander Volkov (3)
Evan: I got to be honest, when it comes to the UFC heavyweight division, there’s currently nothing that interests me more than a potential Jon Jones-Tom Aspinall matchup. So this rematch between two guys that both Jones and Aspianll dispatched with ease, doesn’t do much for me. I really respect the resurgence Volkov has shown since then though, winning his last four Octagon outings all via stoppages. He’s definitely a live dog here, and the more versatile fighter of the two, but I just don’t believe he’s made any sort of significant improvement to beat Gane. I like the Frenchman to win another decision that probably looks pretty similar to their first meeting back in June 2021.
Official Prediction: Ciryl Gane via Unanimous Decision
Lee: In a HW rematch Alexander Volkov looks to avenge a prior loss to Ciryl Gane. Gane walked away from UFC Vegas 30 with a unanimous decision victory. Since that fight, Gane is 3-2 while Volkov is 5-1 and riding a 4-fight win streak. Gane is a very athletic HW with good movement and timely striking but the hole in his game is his non existent wrestling. Volkov should look to use his 64% TD accuracy to negate Gane’s athleticism.
Official Prediction: Alexander Volkov via 2nd Round Submission
Marcos: Gane already proved to be a faster and more accurate striker the first time these two heavyweights matched up. The only way I see Volkov winning is if he proves to be a better wrestler after his 0 takedown attempts in fight number one. Considering the fact that Volkov has not taken anyone down since 2020, I don’t see that happening anytime soon. There just seems to be no advantage anywhere in this matchup for Volkov, and so the danger will not be there for Gane. In fairness to the Russian, his vast experience in the heavyweight division will make him difficult to finish once again.
Official Prediction: Ciryl Gane via Unanimous Decision
Featherweight Bout
Bryce Mitchell (13) vs. Kron Gracie
Evan: While some will call this a grappler’s delight, it’s more of a conspiracy theorists delight in my opinion. Both of these guys constantly babble about nonsense and appeal more to the Joe Rogan podcast audience than me personally. However, the fight itself is somewhat interesting. Gracie probably has the edge in just pure jiu-jitsu skills, while Mitchell is the superior wrestler of the two. The scrambles here should be fun to watch. But, I just think Bryce is the more well rounded fighter of the two by a fairly wide margin. I expect his pace to wear down Kron wherever this fight goes.
Official Prediction: Bryce Mitchell via Unanimous Decision
Lee: This matchup is a grappler’s delight. Mitchell will look to use his tireless grappling and unorthodox fighting style to combat Gracie’s black belt in both BJJ and judo. Both fighters are trying to bounce back from losses in their last fights. This fight simply comes down to which fighter will be the more effective striker. On top of who is willing to incorporate kicks without the fear of being taken down.
Official Prediction: Bryce Mitchell via Split Decision
Marcos: Lee is not lying when he calls this a “grapplers delight,” considering we know exactly what kind of fight to expect here. I would probably bet my entire life savings on Bryce Mitchell to beat a guy with a completely outdated style. Kron Gracie’s last performance was about as pathetic as his attitude these days. I expect nothing less in this upcoming fight. All due respect to Kron and the Gracie family name, but Kron Gracie is not a good MMA fighter. He’s more of a glorified grappler these days. It sounds harsh, but I really just believe Bryce Mitchell will dominate this matchup no matter where it goes.
Official Prediction: Bryce Mitchell via 2nd-Round KO
Featherweight Bout
Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi
Evan: I don’t have a strong feeling either way for this matchup. But, it’s an excellent main card opener that should be a slobber knocker. Both guys have a tendency to get into brawls, which I expect will continue here. It’s really Landwehr’s durability vs. Choi’s more potent offensive firepower. I’m not sure Choi’s ever been the same since the beating he took in his instant classic with Cub Swanson back at UFC 206 in December 2016. I easily could see Nate’s pace and ruggedness overwhelming here. But I’ll roll with the Korean Superboy to edge him in what should be a slug fest for as long as it lasts.
Official Prediction: Doo Ho Choi via 2nd-Round TKO
Lee: Both fighters are known for their exciting fighting styles and looking to maybe jump into the top 15. Landwehr is known for his high-energy fighting style and impressive heart. Choi recently snapped his winless streak with a TKO victory over Bill Algeo in July, marking his first win since 2016. This fight will be won by Choi, if he fights composed with a deliberate approach. Landwehr will win this fight if he forces Choi into a battle where his durability is an asset.
Official Prediction: Nate Landwehr via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: Landwehr will be his usual crazy, exciting self as he marches forward and throws wild shots. Choi is also an exciting fighter with his powerful striking and five FOTN bonuses in just seven UFC fights. I think Choi’s takedown defense will struggle against Nate’s relentless pressure. Yes, Nate can be finished by Choi’s power. But, he seems to fight through big shots in just about every fight I’ve seen. Don’t get me wrong, I definitely wonder how many more wars Nate has in him at 36 years old. This fight will be a certified banger, with Nate’s pressure and toughness paving the route to another victory.
Official Prediction: Nate Landwehr via Split Decision
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