UFC 309: Main Card Predictions
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UFC returns to The Big Apple for the 8th time as UFC 309 goes down inside Madison Square Garden. In 2016, New York City finally ended their MMA ban to become the 50th state to legalize the great sport. Since then, we’ve seen some incredible fights at the world’s most famous arena. Two of the greatest fighters of all time will grace us for possibly the last time in the night’s headliner.
Jon Jones returns to defend his championship against the greatest heavyweight in UFC history, Stipe Miocic. This matchup has been delayed for a couple of years. But on Saturday, we finally see these legends step into the octagon. The rest of the card features a strong presentation of old and young talent. Not to mention, a monster Oliveira-Chandler matchup in the co-main event.
UFC Heavyweight Championship
Jon Jones (C) vs. Stipe Miocic (8)
Evan: This is a fight that nobody asked for or wants to see. The main reason this matchup is happening is because of Dana White’s defiance and stubbornness. With that being said, I do think this could end up being much more competitive, and entertaining than many expect it to be. However, Stipe Miocic hasn’t fought in nearly three years. He’s 42 years old, is already contemplating retirement, and is coming off a brutal KO loss. Even Jon Jones is returning from a lengthy layoff himself, after a torn pectoral kept him out of action since March of last year. So it’s hard to know what to expect from either fighter here.
I’m going to favor Jones in this one. I just simply think he’s better in basically every facet of the game. The only advantage Miocic has is in his boxing. I believe Jon outclasses Stipe primarily in the clinch, brutalizing him with elbows, and knees. I also see him picking the Cleveland native apart from a distance behind his reach, jab, and kicking game. Look for Bones to pick up the victory here, then continue to duck and undermine Tom Aspinall going forward.
Official Prediction: Jon Jones via 3rd-Round TKO or Submission
Lee: This legacy fight comes down to Jones’ chin and Stipe’s ring rust. Jon is accustomed to long layoffs between fights, so I don’t see ring rust being a factor for him. His chin has yet to be tested at heavyweight… Against Ciryl Gane, he slipped a punch and took him down and quickly submitted him. I don’t think it will be that easy against the greatest heavyweight champ in UFC history. Miocic hasn’t fought since losing his title to Francis Ngannou over 3 years ago. Jones being the more technical fighter, just needs to avoid the big shot. He also needs to use his 4-inch+ reach advantage and take Miocic down. This fight will not live up to the hype.
Official Prediction: Jon Jones via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: These are two very well rounded, yet different fighters that can do just about everything well in the octagon. Unfortunately for Stipe, I just think Jon is a bit better at every aspect of the game. In the standup, I favor Jones and his unbelievable management of distance over the boxing style of Miocic. Although Stipe is no slouch when it comes to attempting or defending a takedown, I still favor Jones’ wrestling. Jon is not necessarily known as a finisher. But Stipe is still about as tough as they come, so I do see it going 5 rounds.
Official Prediction: Jon Jones via Unanimous Decision
Lightweight Bout
Charles Oliveira (2) vs. Michael Chandler (7)
Evan: This is hands down the best matchup on the card. Especially if it ends up being anything like their initial meeting back at UFC 262 in May 2021… Fans are in for another barn burner. Michael Chandler, win or lose, is a pure guts and glory type fighter. He takes enormous risks in his fights. They either pay off greatly, or lead to an opening where he gets devastatingly finished.
He’s as deadly of a fighter in the first round as we’ve got in the sport too. It would not shock me in the slightest if he’s able to put Oliveira’s lights out at any point. However, he’s been out for two years now, mainly caused by waiting for a matchup with Conor McGregor. That extended layoff, combined with Chandler’s insistence to get into insane brawls, makes me worried for his chances here. I’m rolling with Do Bronx to take this one. He’s got too many ways to finish Chandler for me to bet against him.
Official Prediction: Charles Oliveira via 3rd-Round TKO or Submission
Lee: I see this rematch between two of the best at lightweight going the same way as the first fight. Michael Chandler is an outstanding first-round fighter. But, he seems to fade once the second round bell rings. 13 of his 23 career wins have come in the first round. Charles Oliviera will stay away in the first round using his jab and kicks to fend off Chandler’s aggression. He will then use his top-level ground game to take control of this fight.
Official Prediction: Charles Oliviera via 3rd-Round Submission
Marcos: If we see a calculated Chandler and not the wild version, then he can absolutely win this fight. Chandler has the explosive striking and the ability to work off his back in a way that makes things interesting. Oliveira’s massively underrated punching power has really come through for him in some big moments. It could find the target once again on Saturday… If Chandler can avoid the sneaky big shots, his power and grappling defense will right the wrong from their previous fight. Unfortunately for Oliveira, I believe the slump will continue by way of Michael Chandler’s right hand.
Official Prediction: Michael Chandler via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Viviane Araújo (9) vs. Karine Silva (11)
Evan: I’m not sure I buy that Karine’s got this massive grappling advantage over Araújo. The Brazilian veteran is a BJJ black belt and according to UFC Stats, has a 78% takedown defense rate. She’s also fought way stiffer competition than Silva. I think this will end up being a competitive scrap, regardless of where it takes place. I’m going to side with Araújo in the slight upset. I see her pace and defensive grappling wearing down Silva.
Official Prediction: Viviane Araújo via Split Decision
Lee: Both fighters are known for their aggressive styles and their ability to finish fights. This fight is my sleeper for fight of the night. Araújo is the better striker (54% Signature Striking Accuracy), but Silva is the better grappler (73% Takedown Accuracy). Silva will need to keep pace with Araújo early in the fight while looking for openings to take her down.
Official Prediction: Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Viviane Araújo’s recent UFC fights tend to go the distance, while Karine Silva has finished most of her opponents. Karine does not have the experience of Araújo, but she has just been so dominant in her MMA run. Silva’s takedowns and control time over the 37-year-old veteran will be her biggest asset in the fight. Silva will get the victory, but not by finish this time, as Viviane is no pushover.
Official Prediction: Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision
Middleweight Bout
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Evan: I find Bo Nickal to be a bit overrated as a prospect. I personally don’t buy into the hype around him as much as many other fans or pundits do. But, this is a pure showcase fight for him against Paul Craig. He should dominate regardless of where the fight goes… While the Scotsman has a tricky guard, Nickal’s grappling acumen, and physicality should overwhelm the UFC veteran here. I see Bo controlling the scrambles on the mat, and beating up Paul on the feet.
Official Prediction: Bo Nickal via 2nd-Round KO or Submission
Lee: This fight can be a banger or a dud. If we see a lot of takedowns with no submission attempts, the fight will be a dud. On the other hand, if both guys can mix in quality striking with their grappling, it could be a banger. Craig has a lost 4 of his last 5 fights, and could be fighting to stay in the UFC. A win for Nickal could propel into an eventual title fight.
Official Prediction: Bo Nickal via 2nd-Round Submission
Marcos: Sure he’s no Ryan Hall… But Paul Craig’s stubborn devotion to BJJ has certainly cost him fights on more than one occasion. I think a key in this one will be Bo Nickal’s striking, which seems to look better each time we see him. The vast experience of Paul Craig in the middleweight division will be his most dangerous advantage in this matchup. Nickal must be cautious of a guy that has already broken the arm of a former world champion. But make no mistake, the matchmakers know what they are doing here. The Bo Nickal train rolls on.
Official Prediction: Bo Nickal via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Lightweight Bout
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Evan: I don’t really have a significant lean on this fight one way or another. But, it should be an entertaining bout to open the main card. Llontop is skilled, but Ruffy’s striking is deadly. He seems to have lethal power, combined with great shot selection. James’s willingness to engage in a firefight and exchange in the pocket with Mauricio, could be his downfall. I think the Brazilian prospect adds another KO to the highlight reel in this one.
Official Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Lee: James is stepping in on short notice. Ruffy has struggled to find and keep opponents. He had fights scheduled for UFC 303 and UFC 307 prior to getting this fight at UFC 309. Looking at the stats, this fight should be contested mostly on the feet. I think Llontop will need to incorporate some wrestling if he wants to win this fight. I see an upset coming…
Official Prediction: James Llontop via Split Decision
Marcos: Based on the stylistic matchup here, I do not believe this fight will go the distance. Ruffy is a flat-out knockout artist, and Llontop is a very technical fighter with high-level skills. Ruffy seems to be an all-or-nothing kind of guy who always goes for it. He has a 100% knockout rate. What makes it even more interesting is that Llontop has proven to have that dog in him… So, this will not be easy for either man. Llontop must keep that pressure and tighten up his striking defense if he wants to win. I believe the knockout will continue for Ruffy.
Official Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
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