UFC 306: Main Card Predictions
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In what may be the most unique night in the company’s history, the UFC heads to the Sphere in Las Vegas for UFC 306. According to President Dana White, millions were spent on this once-in-a-lifetime combat event. We may never see something like this again…
On August 14th, the 2.3 billion-dollar venue will host its first ever live sporting event. The fights will take place on Mexican Independence Day and feature a plethora of elite UFC talent from Mexico. Not to mention a monster main event between UFC bantamweight champion, Sean O’Malley, and top contender Merab Dvalishvili. Who’s ready for UFC 306? Check out our staff predictions:
UFC Bantamweight Championship
Sean O’Malley (C) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (1)
Evan: The bantamweight division has gone through the ebbs and flows of different eras. From Dominick Cruz, TJ Dillashaw, and Aljamain Sterling, the crown at 135 has been juggled around the past decade or so. Now in its latest iteration, we’ve officially entered The Sean O’Malley era. While some continue to dismiss his abilities because he looks like a SoundCloud rapper from the mid 2010’s, O’Malley has cemented himself as one of the most notable stars in the sport. He will face arguably his toughest test to date in Georgian cardio machine, Merab Dvalishvili.
This is one of the most obvious striker vs. grappler matchups we’ve ever seen in recent memory. O’Malley is a sniper, according to UFC Stats he lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute at an absurd 61% accuracy clip. Dvalishvili on the other hand, secures a relentless 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. Simply put, this fight comes down to who is able to impose their style on the other. Merab might end up running over Sean in this fight with his blistering pace and grappling skills. However, I’m going with Suga here.
People seem to forget that Dvalishvili was hurt badly in both of his fights with Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes. Between that, his tendency to close the range somewhat recklessly, and the way he squares himself up, it makes me worried about his chances in this one. Behind his length, reach advantage, versatile feints, and striking arsenal, O’Malley once again defends his title in empathetic fashion.
Official Prediction: Sean O’Malley via 2nd or 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Lee: Merab Dvalishvili is riding a 10-fight win streak, while Sean O’Malley has won 6 of his last 7. Merab is good on his feet and outstanding on the mat. O’Malley is a KO artist to the highest degree… But, can he wrestle? Coming into this fight, Dvalishvili got stitches for a nasty cut above his left eye, will this play a part in the fight?
Official Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili via 3rd-Round Submission
Marcos: Upon speaking to Merab’s coach, John Wood, it has become even more apparent that this fight will be a bad matchup for both gentlemen. O’Malley is one of the quickest starters and masters of space in MMA, while Merab often struggles to close the distance early in fights and rounds. Merab’s chin and O’Malley’s takedown defense will be heavily tested in this matchup. It all boils down to who will be more successful in their strengths. O’Malley will look to keep a distance and pick him apart, while Dvalishvili looks to close the distance and grab a hold of the champion. For some reason, my gut tells me O’Malley gets a finish here.
Official Prediction: Sean O’Malley via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship
Alexa Grasso (C) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (1)
Evan: Given how their first two meetings have gone, this is basically a coin flip for me. Shevchenko has opted for a more grappling-heavy approach in both fights, securing 8-13 takedown attempts against Grasso. Her control time on the mat was far more significant in the rematch too, but it appeared to impact her gas tank as well. I don’t really have a definitive feeling on this trilogy, but I’ll side with Grasso.
I think she’s closed the gap in the striking department against Shevchenko. Plus, the Mexican champion has more room for adjustments than her counterpart does. I just haven’t seen much evolution in Valentina’s game planning in the first two fights. I see Alexa out-boxing her for the most part, mixing up her shot selection well once again, out-landing Shevchenko in the clinch, and stifling more takedown attempts this time around to eke out a decision win.
Official Prediction: Alexa Grasso via Split Decision
Lee: Alexa Grasso left Noche UFC as the UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion. But she didn’t leave with a victory over her rival Valentina Shevchenko. The two combatants fought it out in a five-round split decision draw. In their first fight Grasso was world class on the mat, grabbing an unexpected submission win. Shevchenko fought a more technical fight the second time around and looked to be the better fighter in my opinion. This third fight is a pick ’em fight to me… Can Grasso dominate on the mat again or will Shevchenko return to her technical greatness?
Official Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko via Split Decision
Marcos: This is a very difficult fight to predict between the two best in the division. Shevchenko is a world-class striker with sneaky good grappling, while Grasso is also a good grappler with much improved striking. If there’s one key thing I see here, it’s that Alexa seems to show significant improvement with each fight, and it could spell disaster for Valentina. Even though Grasso submitted Valentina in their first fight, Shevchenko has often found success when using her grappling against Grasso. In a trilogy where both ladies know each other by now, it may come down to who can do more in each department. At the end of the day, I just think Valentina checks more boxes in terms of her overall game.
Official Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko via Split Decision
Featherweight Bout
Brian Ortega (3) vs. Diego Lopes (12)
Evan: I’m glad to see the promotion rescheduled this fight. It’s a barn burner on paper and easily could be FOTN. When we initially previewed this matchup for UFC 303, I hesitantly sided with Ortega. I thought he could out wrestle and out scramble Lopes, while landing enough big shots to get the victory. At this point though, I can’t pick against Diego. There’s just too much unknown with Brian currently, that it feels disingenuous for me to still ride with him here.
Lopes has got the grappling acumen to hang with Ortega on the mat, and is the better technical striker of the two. He’s also got stellar finishing instincts, so if he smells blood in the water at all, it could be a short night for T-City. Whether it’s a brawl or a more tactical affair, I believe the Brazilian contender gets the job done against the former two-time UFC title challenger.
Official Prediction: Diego Lopes via 3rd-Round TKO
Lee: Finally, Brian Ortega will take on the exciting Diego Lopes. Lopes is getting a step up in competition, while also riding a four-fight win/KO streak. Ortega is coming off a third-round submission win over Yair Rodriguez. When breaking down the stats, this fight looks like the classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Ortega was dropped in his last fight by Rodriguez… But can he survive if dropped by Lopes?
Official Prediction: Diego Lopes via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: Brian Ortega is a tremendous submission specialist, though he is lacking a bit defensively with his striking. The more experienced Ortega has proven he can withstand the most dangerous of storms in a UFC Octagon. Diego Lopes fights quite similarly to Ortega, with a lethal BJJ approach and even more effective striking. They are two grapplers of the highest order who are willing to slug it out in the center of the cage if needed. Lopes appears to have the superior cardio, and we have seen Ortega fade late in fights. Regardless, I favor Ortega’s superior takedown ability in this very even matchup.
Official Prediction: Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Evan: I frankly don’t care at all about this fight or the Raul Rosas Jr. experience in the slightest. Still, at just 19 years old, it’s easy to see the potential Raul has. This seems like a tailor made matchup for him. Aoriqileng doesn’t have great defensive wrestling or grappling, and the young prospect could easily run through him here.
Official Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. via 1st or 2nd-Round Submission
Lee: Raul Rosas Jr. looks to pick up his fourth promotional win when he battles China’s Aoriqileng. Aoriqiileng, most recently competed in February when he was struck in the groin by Daniel Marcos resulting in a no contest. Rosas Jr. is on a two-fight winning streak, both by submission, and he could be ranked with a win here. Can the veteran, Aoriqileng, put a halt to the Rosas Jr. hype train?
Official Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. via 1st-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out this mismatch. If Aoriqileng can’t defend takedowns and keep the fight standing early, then he’ll be in big trouble. Considering Aoriqileng’s unimpressive 53% takedown defense, I will just go on record now and say that this fight is not even remotely close. Expect the rising Mexican star to dominate this matchup from start to finish. Rosas may even get it done however he chooses, as we have seen him start to get finishes with his hands as well. The only hope for Aoriqileng is to withstand the early storm and hope that Rosas tires himself out.
Official Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. via 1st-Round Submission
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Irene Aldana (5) vs. Norma Dumont (8)
Evan: This is another close matchup on the card. I could see an argument for either woman winning here. I feel Aldana is the rangier of the two and has the crisper striking. However, Dumont’s got better grappling skills and is more physically imposing. I’ll ultimately take Irene, I think she fights well behind her jab, kicking game, and thwarts most of Norma’s takedown attempts. It’s truly a 50/50 fight to me though, regardless.
Official Prediction: Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision
Lee: Irene Aldana and Norma Dumont will lock horns in the Octagon in a bout that should have major implications for the division. Dumont has risen up the ranks, putting together a four-fight win streak with her ability to control the pace of the fight coupled with her unique striking style. Aldana, known for her powerful striking and finishing ability, showed great resilience and determination in her come-from-behind victory over Karol Rosa.
Official Prediction: Irene Aldana via Split Decision
Marcos: Based on what I’ve seen from both ladies, I am confident we’ll see a great fight no matter the outcome. Irene certainly likes to use her boxing when she can, and Norma has been working extensively on her ground game. I would say Aldana is the more dangerous fighter. But, I think Dumont’s skill set is better suited to excel in a fight like this. Expect Dumont to really use the space in the octagon while moving in and out of punching range. Aldana will still have her chances over 15 minutes, considering Dumont is not much of a finisher. I can see multiple outcomes to this… But, ultimately I think Dumont will do enough over three rounds.
Official Prediction: Norma Dumont via Split Decision
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