UFC 305: Main Card Predictions
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UFC goes back down under in Perth, Australia for UFC 305. MMA has emerged as the most popular combat sport in that region, featuring some of the top fighters we see today. UFC 110 marked the company’s first stop there, so needless to say, the sport has come a long way since 2010.
UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus Du Plessis will finally settle his grudge match with Israel Adesanya in a fight that will surely steal the headlines. A battle to determine the top African fighter in the UFC, and perhaps a rivalry settled once and for all. UFC 305 also includes a number of fighters from that part of the globe like, Kara-France, Erceg, Hooker, and Tuivasa. This fun mix of matchups should make this an awesome night of fights…
“Aussie Aussie Aussie!”
UFC Middleweight Championship
Dricus Du Plessis (C) vs. Israel Adesanya (2)
Lee: Dricus Du Plessis will defend his middleweight title for the first time against Israel Adesanya at UFC 305. While Adesanya looks to become a three-time champion in the division. Adesanya hasn’t fought since UFC 293, where he lost the belt to Strickland. In the Strickland fight, Adesanya was stuck in neutral. He was waiting to counter Strickland who kept him at bay. Round 2, is where Adesanya shined when he decided to come out and be the aggressor. But Du Plessis took the fight to Strickland and kept him on his heels. Adesanya will have the home crowd advantage but will he be the aggressor?
Official Prediction: Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This matchup has bad blood dripping all over it. There’s racial and cultural tensions between these two that have entered uncomfortable territory at times. I think this fight has become bigger than just winning a title, especially for Adesanya. DDP has all the tools to beat the former middleweight king. His physicality, power, blitzing style of striking, and sneaky grappling game could lead to a nightmarish outing for Israel.
If Dricus can earn Adesanya’s respect on the feet with his power, and score takedowns in space, I really like his chances. However, I believe he woke up a sleeping giant with his pre-fight trash talk. I expect a motivated Izzy to look as sharp as he ever has. Look for him to keep DDP at range behind his 4” reach advantage. Using his jab, and kicking arsenal, while shutting down the South African champions blitzes with potent counter punching. I’m picking Stylebender to reclaim his spot atop the 185 pound throne in what should be an excellent scrap.
Official Prediction: Israel Adesanya via 4th-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: My biggest question here is: has Adesanya made adequate changes to avoid getting the pace pushed on him? Du Plessis’ game plan will be similar to Stricklands in the sense of making Adesanya as uncomfortable as possible. If Dricus lets Israel get too comfortable at range, he will get picked apart all night long. Adesanya is the quicker and more technical striker. Adesanya certainly has that one punch-knockout ability with his back against the cage. So, the world champion must be cautious when closing distance. I believe Du Plesis keeps the pressure on Adesanya and uses his strength advantage in the grappling exchanges.
Official Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision
Flyweight Bout
Kai Kara-France (4) vs. Steve Erceg (7)
Lee: Kara-France makes his return at UFC 305 after a long layoff. He hasn’t fought since a unanimous decision loss against Amir Albazi in June 2023 and is also riding a two-fight losing streak. Erceg had his three-fight win streak snapped when he lost in his title fight versus Alexandre Pantoja. Erceg showed great skills and heart in the fight but the judges scored it for the Champ. Kara-France is looking to get back in the title picture if he can get the win versus Erceg.
Official Prediction: Steve Erceg via Split Decision
Evan: This is the best fight on the UFC 305 card for my money. Both Kara-France and Erceg are so well rounded and skilled. They’re evenly matched across the board, which makes this so difficult to pick between the two. The extended layoff worries me for KKF. But I feel he does have a bit more firepower on the feet than Erceg, and his defensive grappling is top notch. With that being said, Steve showed his worth in a gritty, competitive outing against current UFC flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, back in May.
He’s also a slicker grappler than Kai in my opinion, and has crisp boxing skills. I don’t think either guy has a decisive advantage over the other. Erceg will have the hometown support in this Oceanic showdown, but I think Kara-France edges out a narrow decision win by landing the heavier shots on the feet, and winning the scrambles in the grappling exchanges.
Official Prediction: Kai Kara-France via Split Decision
Marcos: Kai Kara France is certainly an impressive striker, but Erceg proved to be no slouch on his feet against Pantoja. Although his grappling may have cost Steve Erceg the world title, he is still superior to Kara-France in that department. While Kai may deliver more damaging blows, I see Erceg being more efficient on the scorecards. Both fighters possess some of the best skills at flyweight. So this fight will be ultra competitive no matter who wins. It just feels like Steve has more ways to get it done in this fight than Kai, given his more well-rounded skill set.
Official Prediction: Steve Erceg via Split Decision
Lightweight Bout
Mateusz Gamrot (5) vs. Dan Hooker (11)
Lee: Dan Hooker, another fighter returning to the Octagon after more than a year off. The No 5-ranked Gamrot is looking to stay in the title picture, and has more to lose in this fight than to gain. Fighting Hooker in his backyard will be a challenge. Hooker who is a big talker will need his best takedown defense to beat the wrestling-heavy Gamrot. Hooker has fought some of the best fighters in the division with mixed reviews, can he get past Gamrot at UFC 305?
Official Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot via 3rd-Round Submission
Evan: On paper, Gamrot is a horrible stylistic matchup for Hooker. His ability to spam takedowns at a relentless rate, takedown variety, and frenetic scrambles seem terrible to deal with. But it feels like it’s what his entire game is predicated on. He doesn’t offer much pop in the striking department. I’m going to back Hooker and his 80% takedown defense rate here. He might end up getting wrestled to death and controlled by the Polish contender. Nonetheless, I think Dan will stifle enough take down attempts, while throwing attacks up the middle like uppercuts and step in knees. He has to make Mateusz pay for repetitive entries.
Official Prediction: Dan Hooker via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: It is no secret that Gamrot will look to use his grappling skills to subdue Hooker’s dangerous style. The question becomes: how will Hooker deal with the constant takedown entries? To be completely honest, I hate this matchup for Hooker. Especially in a fight that could propel him back into title contention. If Hooker can use his successful takedown defense and find openings in the stand-up battle, then anything can happen. I just feel he is truly outmatched by Gamrot’s world-class grappling.
Official Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot via 2nd-Round Submission
Heavyweight Bout
Tai Tuivasa (10) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12)
Lee: Tai Tuivasa returns home to Australia in hopes of ending his current four-fight losing streak. I will keep this short and sweet, I am a non-believer in Rozenstruik who is 2-3 in his past five fights. He burst on the scene with a KO of the Year against Alistair Overeem. But since then, he has failed to live up to the hype.
Official Prediction: Tai Tuivasa via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: I try to be blunt when a fight doesn’t interest me, this is one of those cases. Both Tuivasa and Rozenstruik are extremely one dimensional fighters who rely heavily on their striking and power. Jairzinho is technically more sound, but Tai definitely can pull him into a brawl. Either way, flip a coin with these two, one of them is getting KO’d probably regardless. I’ll roll with Tuivasa to get the finish by landing a big knee or uppercut in close.
Official Prediction: Tai Tuivasa via 1st-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: I would be stunned if we saw anything other than a standup gun fight between these two heavy hitters. I am expecting to see two fairly limited fighters throw everything they have at each other from the start. This fight comes down to the superior technical striking of Rozenstruik against the far more powerful striking of Tuivasa. If the fight goes past one round, then I can see Rozenstruik using his superior kickboxing experience to win as Tai slows down. However, I do think Tuivasa will swarm him early and get the finish.
Official Prediction: Tai Tuivasa via 1st-Round KO/TKO
Welterweight Bout
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Lee: Li Jingliang hasnt fought since September 2022 due to a spine injury. And in his return at UFC 305 he will face Brazil’s Carlos Prates, who is riding an 11-fight win streak. Two of those wins came via the Contender Series. Jingliang is known for his style of always coming-forward and being hard-hitting. He will need to employ some head movement and faints to negate Prates almost 7-inch reach advantage. If this fight had happen 2 years ago it would have been harder to pick but we are talking now…..
Official Prediction: Carlos Prates via 2nd round KO/TKO
Evan: I’m such a fan of The Leech, inside and outside of the cage. He’s got a fan friendly style and his personality really has started to shine through. I think Lee brought up some great points though. Between the near two year layoff, and the fact he’s 36 now competing in a stacked welterweight division, it might be too much for Jingliang to overcome. My heart is with him in this one, but I got to take Prates. The Brazilian is surging right now and has the more dynamic skill set of the two.
Official Prediction: Carlos Prates via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: I expect to see Prates stay busier in this fight as he uses his wide variety of kicks from all directions. Li is a very difficult fighter to finish. So, I think Prates’ output will tally up on the judges’ scorecards in a decision. His outside movement, leg kicks, and jab should give Li some problems in this matchup. He is nicknamed “The Leach” for a reason, but I think Prates takedown defense will hold off Li’s most effective route to victory. You also have to wonder if the age and time off will take a toll on Jingliang.
Official Prediction: Carlos Prates via Unanimous Decision
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