UFC 304: Main Card Predictions
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The UFC makes its next stop in the great fighting country of England. Having the most passionate fans in MMA and the best main card we’ve seen since UFC 300 should make this a memorable night in Manchester. The sport has come a long way since the promotion’s first event in the country at UFC 38. Since then, we have seen a plethora of world-class fighters emerge from the United Kingdom.
The first two English fighters to hold UFC gold since Michael Bisping will headline this stacked card in the Co-op Live Arena. Leon Edwards finally squares off with the red-hot Belal Muhammad since the eye poke no contest in their first meeting. Up-and-coming superstar Tom Aspinall defends his interim strap against the always-solid, Curtis Blaydes. With additional names like Paddy Pimblett, Arnold Allen, and Muhammad Mokaev, this card will have your eyes glued to the television from start to finish.
UFC Welterweight Championship
Leon Edwards (C) vs. Belal Muhammad (2)
Lee: Leon Edwards is the better all-around fighter. But, Muhammad is seldomly outclassed. Leon will keep the fight at distance with his kicks and jabs. He isn’t afraid to fight in a phone booth though, using his elbow strikes if needed. Has Muhammad added any new wrinkles to his game that would give Edwards problems?
Official Prediction: Leon Edwards via Unanimous Decision
Evan: This is a rematch that’s been long overdue. Belal Muhammad has become a bit of a polarizing figure for many fans. Which seemingly stems from the somewhat cringey trash talk he engages in on Twitter, combined with a fighting style that isn’t the most aesthetically pleasing. Regardless, he has more than earned this opportunity, rattling off nine straight wins against elite competition. The more rugged he can make this scrap, the better chance he has of dethroning Edwards. Pushing the champion to the fence, roughing him up in the clinch, and scoring takedowns should be Muhammad’s best path to victory.
However, I believe he’s severely underestimating Leon. The way he’s tried to diminish his skills has been somewhat off putting for me personally. I think the Englishman is sharper than ever currently. I expect him to pick apart Belal from a distance, controlling the range behind his precision linear combos and kicking arsenal. I’ll take the hometown favorite in what might not be the most entertaining affair.
Official Prediction: Leon Edwards via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Managing the distance will be crucial in a fight like this, as Leon looks to keep the distance and Belal looks to close the distance. Whoever can win that battle should, in turn, win the fight and take home the world championship. Although Leon has the ability to turn the lights off on anyone, this fight will likely go the distance, as it does most times with these two fighters. I believe Leon Edwards’ world-class striking and takedown defense will squeak him past an underrated Belal Muhammad over the course of five rounds.
Official Prediction: Leon Edwards via Split Decision
UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
Tom Aspinall (IC) vs. Curtis Blaydes (4)
Lee: Tom Aspinall looks to exact some revenge against the only man to beat him since arriving in the UFC. Aspinall has claimed that loss was a result of him fighting with a torn ACL. Blaydes is a quality fighter, but when he is put in fights of this magnitude, he rarely shines. I don’t see that happening this time around as he should be confident knowing that he has beaten Aspinall before. Aspinall is looking to unify the heavyweight title… But to do that, he needs to win.
Official Prediction: Tom Aspinall via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Evan: Curtis Blaydes is a live dog here. I truly believe he’s got the skills to beat any heavyweight on the planet. I also think people have undervalued him because of his past losses to Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis, and Sergei Pavlovich. His footwork, athleticism, improved boxing, and wrestling ability are all tools that present problems to anyone in the division.
I’m most curious to see what challenges he can pose to Aspinall in the grappling exchanges. If he can threaten with takedowns, while setting up his combinations on the feet, Blaydes will definitely have the shot to pull off the upset. With that being said, I’m not betting against Tom right now. His versatility, fight IQ, and finishing instincts are rare for a heavyweight. I think he’ll get the job done on his home soil in emphatic fashion. We need to see the Jon Jones matchup sooner rather than later.
Official Prediction: Tom Aspinall via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: The only advantage I see for Curtis Blaydes is his top-notch wrestling. But unfortunately for him, he runs into the most dynamic heavyweight we have ever seen in an octagon. I believe Aspinall’s well-rounded skillset will be far too overwhelming for the number four contender. If Curtis is not able to secure a takedown, it will be a long night for him, as he will be finished like the others. Aspinall’s explosion and unprecedented abilities in the heavyweight division will overwhelm Blaydes very early on.
Official Prediction: Tom Aspinall via 1st-Round KO/TKO
Lightweight Bout
Bobby Green (15) vs. Paddy Pimblett
Lee: This battle of words will finally come to an end when the octagon door is locked. Bobby Green travels to Paddy Pimblett’s backyard for what should be an action-packed fight. I like Green in the standup exchanges. But, I would favor Pimblett if he can establish his ground game. Green being the vet should frustrate Pimblett with his slick striking and trash talk during the fight. Does Pimblett have enough in his striking game to hang with Green?
Official Prediction: Bobby Green via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I’m just going to be blunt, I don’t think Paddy Pimblett is all that skilled. He’s got decent power and is a good back taker. But overall, he’s overhyped in my opinion. His striking is sort of a mess, specifically his defense, and he can’t wrestle all that well. Paddy gets caught throwing punches with his head staying in the same spot and chin up in the air quite often. If Bobby Green is dialed in, there’s no reason he should lose this one. As Lee pointed out, I see him styling on Pimblett on the feet with his slickness, frustrating Paddy with his trash talk, and stifling his grappling with sound defensive wrestling.
Official Prediction: Bobby Green via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Given the trash talk, you know Green will be in Pimblett’s face, taunting and talking to him as he looks to put on a striking clinic. Bobby is clearly the better striker, so it will be on Paddy to look for any openings and pounce on him. Paddy’s striking defense is very worrisome in a fight like this, so he must stay on Green all night like glue. We have seen Bobby make mistakes and pay for them with grapplers in the past, so he must not get overzealous. I believe Pimblett will do just enough with his grappling to run the clock out to a decision.
Official Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via Unanimous Decision
Flyweight Bout
Muhammad Mokaev (6) vs. Manel Kape (8)
Lee: This fight is finally going to happen! Manel Kape is very fast with his punches and is more effective when he’s throwing combinations. Mokaev doesn’t want to stand and bang with Kape, he wants to use his 41% takedown accuracy and 5.75 takedown average every 15 minutes. When watching Kape fights he seems to tire going into the later rounds which could be problematic against Mokaev.
Official Prediction: Muhammed Mokaev via by 3rd-Round Submission
Evan: The trend of fights that are long overdue continues on this card here. This matchup between Mokaev and Kape is filled with bad blood. Muhammad’s definitely got the grappling edge between the two. Although, I’m a little concerned he’s sort of a one-trick pony in that way, and he does tend to gas in the later rounds of his past fights. The more chaotic scrambles, the better it will be for Mokaev as he looks to submit his rival. I do think he will struggle with Kape’s dynamism and power in the striking exchanges though. But, I believe the Dagestani contender will get out to an early enough lead to eke out a close victory.
Official Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev via Split Decision
Marcos: Manel Kape has been training with high-level Dagestani wrestlers for this fight, and that could do wonders against someone with the style of Muhammad Mokaev. You can definitely see the deficiencies in Mokaev’s stand-up when the fight is not going his way. Kape must take advantage of those striking exchanges before he inevitably gets taken down. I feel this will go down to whether the judges favor Kape’s damage or Mokaev’s ground control.
Official Prediction: Manel Kape via Split Decision
Featherweight Bout
Arnold Allen (6) vs. Giga Chikadze (10)
Lee: Arnold Allen will have the home crowd in advantage in this pivotal featherweight clash against Giga Chikadze. Allen hopes to avoid the dreaded three-fight losing streak after suffering the first two defeats of his pro MMA career. I think Allen’s southpaw style could give Chikadze some problems. But, Chikadze has a 4-inch reach advantage at his disposal. Arnold will look to use 50% takedown accuracy to negate Giga’s striking. Chikadze will be returning to the octagon for the first time in almost a year. So will there be some ring rust?
Official Prediction: Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision
Evan: I don’t have any significant thoughts or feelings on this fight. It’s a great main card opener between two underrated featherweight contenders. If this becomes a kickboxing match, I’d lean towards Chikadze. But given his extended layoff, combined with Allen having more tools in his toolbox if you will, I’m going to once again side with the hometown product.
Official Prediction: Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Giga is certainly a dangerous striker, but we have seen that there are levels in the division, and I feel he is not up to par with Arnold Allen. Arnold’s offensive grappling has been effective the few times we’ve seen it, and I feel he will use it if he is being out-landed. Yet, Allen has been in there with far superior strikers and thrived. So, I think he is superior no matter where this fight takes place. As long as he can manage Chikadze’s effective body kicks, he will win comfortably.
Official Prediction: Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision
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