State of The UFC Lightweight Division
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The UFC lightweight division remains one of the most dynamic weight classes in the promotion, with reigning champion Islam Makhachev at the helm. Since capturing the title at UFC 280 by defeating Charles Oliveira, Makhachev has defended his belt three times. Twice against featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski, and once against former interim lightweight champion, Dustin Poirier.
Despite his dominance, questions loom about what lies ahead for the Dagestani grappler. With a rematch against Arman Tsarukyan set for UFC 311 to kick off the UFC’s 2025 calendar year, the lightweight landscape could change drastically depending on the result.
The Tsarukyan Threat
Arman Tsarukyan gave Makhachev one of the most competitive fights of his career during their first meeting at UFC Fight Night 149 in 2019. At the time, Tsarukyan was making his UFC debut and fell short in a decision loss. Since then, he has steadily climbed the ranks, earning the rightful position of number-one contender.
If Makhachev retains his title at UFC 311, the division faces a dilemma. Charles Oliveira is currently ranked #2 and appears to be the next logical challenger. But, a rematch may not generate significant excitement, given Makhachev’s decisive victory over him at UFC 280.
A Stalled Contender Pool
Justin Gaethje, ranked #3, seems unlikely to earn another title shot after being knocked out by Max Holloway at UFC 300. Similarly, Dustin Poirier (#4) and Max Holloway (#5) are coming off losses, leaving the top of the division without a fresh contender. Fighters ranked #6 and below, like Dan Hooker, are still a fight or two away from genuine title contention.
This situation could force the UFC to look outside its roster or consider unorthodox options to find the next challenger.
The Super Fight Option
One possibility could be a super fight between Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, the reigning featherweight champion. Topuria, who recently defeated Max Holloway at UFC 308, has the potential to follow in Alexander Volkanovski’s footsteps and pursue champ-champ status. However, Topuria still needs a few more title defenses to solidify his reign. Especially before a move up to lightweight becomes a viable option.
Looking Outside the UFC
Given the UFC’s recent precedent of bringing in outside talent, as seen with Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura, the promotion might explore international champions as potential challengers for Makhachev.
One intriguing option is Bellator lightweight champion, Patricio Pitbull. The Brazilian star has expressed frustration with inactivity following the Bellator-PFL merger. He would be a valuable addition to the UFC roster if allowed. Pitbull’s résumé as a champion, and his status as a BMF contender make him a worthy debut opponent for Makhachev.
Another possibility is RIZIN lightweight champion, Roberto Satoshi Souza. With a 3-0 streak, all first-round submissions, Satoshi has emerged as a legitimate threat. Given the growing collaboration between UFC and RIZIN, highlighted by Kai Asakura’s UFC debut and Sean O’Malley’s recent involvement promoting RIZIN, a cross-promotional bout could be feasible.
A Potential Problem After UFC 311
If Tsarukyan fails to dethrone Makhachev, the UFC could face a lightweight bottleneck. With most top contenders either defeated or inactive, Makhachev might be left waiting for the next true #1 contender to emerge. Moving up to welterweight is an option… But, Makhachev’s friendship with current champion, Belal Muhammad, makes that scenario unlikely while Muhammad holds the belt.
The UFC’s lightweight division remains a showcase of talent. However, maintaining fresh and competitive matchups for Makhachev could be challenging in 2025. Whether through rematches, cross-promotional fights, or grooming the next generation of contenders, the promotion must navigate carefully to keep the division thriving.
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