PFL Road to Dubai Champions Series: Main Card Predictions
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The Professional Fighters League (PFL) takes center stage this weekend. Their PFL Road to Dubai Champions Series features an action-packed main card headlined by some of the sport’s rising stars. In the spotlight is Usman Nurmagomedov, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. He’s the reigning Bellator lightweight champion, defending the belt twice since winning it in 2022. On Saturday, January 25, Nurmagomedov enters the SmartCage to defend his title against the dangerous Paul Hughes.
Nurmagomedov (18-0) and Hughes (17-1) bring an exciting clash of styles to the cage, with the bout being marketed as Dagestan vs. Ireland—a rivalry reignited by the historic Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor feud. This matchup carries extra intrigue, as both fighters possess the skills and credentials to compete at the highest levels of the sport, including the UFC.
The main card is stacked with talent, and fight fans can expect high-stakes bouts throughout. Check out our breakdown of the main card matchups, and staff predictions:
Bellator Lightweight Championship
Usman Nurmagomedov (c) vs. Paul Hughes
Evan: This is one of the very best matchups you could make outside of the UFC. It’s a fight that is compelling in a variety of ways. It has everything combat sports fans should want from the stakes… Skill level, a storyline, and the continuation of the Khabib-McGregor feud. Nurmagomedov and Hughes are both immensely talented young fighters. I could see a legitimate case for picking either of them to win. Ultimately though from my perspective, this comes down to who controls the range.
I think Usman has the advantage if they’re exchanging from a distance with the array of kicks he has at his disposal. The fight also should favor him if it’s fought inside from within the clinch given his wrestling and grappling acumen. However, if it stays in the pocket and at the mid range, I’d lean towards Paul’s boxing ability becoming the deciding factor. Regardless, I feel this will be a far more competitive scrap than some believe. Hughes has the defensive wrestling and slipperiness in the scrambles to give Nurmagomedov big issues. With all that being said, Nurmagomedov’s versatility and precision will give him the slight edge over the brash young Irishman. Allowing Dagestan to prevail once again over Ireland, in the next chapter of one of MMA’s best new rivalries.
Official Prediction: Usman Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision
Joey: While I didn’t quite understand the matchmaking at first, I’m glad we’re getting this fight. Usman is my favorite of the Nurmagomedov-Dagestani bunch. But the reality here is, Paul Hughes is only two fights into his PFL career. And with the recent changes PFL announced at the beginning of the year, it didn’t make sense to have the Bellator lightweight championship defended. Especially if the brand has been dissolved. But nonetheless, skill for skill, this matchup is as intriguing as ever. The Ireland vs. Russia 2 promotion has also been spot on, building genuine intrigue. Something the PFL has lacked quite consistently in 2024.
Despite Paul’s hot start en route to being the PFL’s newest posterboy, I just can’t see him halting Usman’s dominance. Usman is just too well rounded, and too proud, to fold at the hands of an Irishman. Especially with all the bad blood in the lead up. I just see things starting to shift once we get into the championship rounds.
Official Prediction: Usman Nurmagomedov via 4th-Round Submission
Heavyweight Bout
Vadim Nemkov vs. Tim Johnson
Evan: When it comes to the heavyweight division, anything can happen on any given night. One punch or strike can literally change the entire trajectory of a fight. Johnson is a veteran who is big, strong, a decent wrestler, and has KO power. If he’s able to put his weight on Nemkov in the clinch, holding him against the cage or lands a big shot on the feet, there’s no question he can win. I just believe Nemkov is the superior fighter in every aspect of the game. I think he will outclass Johnson wherever this one ends up going.
Official Prediction: Vadim Nemkov via 2nd-Round TKO or Submission
Joey: As far into one’s career as Vadim Nemkov is, you’d think he would be fighting bigger names. I mean, the dude is a former Bellator Light Heavyweight Champion. Not taking anything away from Tim Johnson… But beating a 39-year-old with a record of 18-10 doesn’t quite scream ‘#1-contender’s fight’. Maybe this sets up Vadim nicely to enter the 2025 heavyweight bracket. Regardless I’ll keep it short and sweet. Vadim Nemkov wins in any way he wants.
Official Prediction: Vadim Nemkov via 1st-Round Submission
Featherweight Bout
Nathan Kelly vs. Akhmed Magomedov
Both: Outside of the main event, this might be the most intriguing bout on the card. Nathan Kelly has been on fire, currently riding an 11-fight winning streak that includes nine first round finishes. The Irishman has a slick jiu-jitsu game, solid takedowns from the clinch, and crisp combination punching. He’s got power and speed in both hands, plus good finishing instincts. Akhmed Magomedov is more of a grinder with his grappling. But he can also hang on the feet with his kickboxing skills. We did see holes in his game last time out when he suffered his first defeat at the hands of a savvy veteran.
Akhmed might be able to control Nathan against the fence, smushing him with his wrestling and physicality. But, Kelly could very well pull off the upset by winning the exchanges on the feet, debasing Magomedov with calf kicks, and holding his own in the grappling department.
Official Prediction: Nathan Kelly via Split Decision
Featherweight Bout
Ibragim Ibragimov vs. Kenny Mokhonoana
Evan: Ibragimov is one of the most exciting prospects in the PFL right now. At just 20 years old, it feels like the sky’s the limit for this Dagestani wonder kid. He’s a dynamic athlete who has relentless wrestling ability, sound submission skills, and an improving stand-up game. Mokhonoana meanwhile is a lanky, rangy striker who also is a solid grappler in his own right. If Ibragim’s recklessness or overconfidence gets too out of hand, Kenny definitely has the ability to pull off the upset here. However, I just think Ibragimov’s explosiveness and physicality will be too much for him to handle. Expect Ibragimov to sort of run Mokhonoana over with constant takedowns against the cage and in the scrambles on the mat.
Official Prediction: Ibragim Ibragimov via Unanimous Decision
Joey: The matchmaking on this card is phenomenal, and this fight specifically is perfectly matched. Both men are very much on the rise, but fun to watch. It’s truly hard to root against anyone with Khabib Nurmagomedov in their corner. Especially at 20-year-old prospect like Ibragim Ibragimov. But don’t count Kenny Mokhonoana out. Despite suffering his first defeat last time out, his resume can go toe-to-toe with the Russian’s when it comes to first-round finishes. While I do believe the matchmaking is great, the level of competition Ibragim has faced is what sticks out most. There’s just no way this one is going to the judge’s scorecards.
Official Prediction: Ibragim Ibragimov via 2nd-Round Submission
Bantamweight Bout
Renat Khavalov vs. Cleiver Fernandes
Both: Khavalov seems primed to be one of the next breakout stars coming from Team Khabib. The undefeated former Eagle FC bantamweight champion is one of the better prospects in the division currently. He’s got the versatile chain wrestling, and suffocating top control you expect to see from Dagastani fighters nowadays. Yet, he also has technical striking skills too, switching stances with ease, and power in both hands.
Fernandes on the other hand, is aggressive and has a tricky submission game predicated on things like kneebars or calf slicers. Cleiver is good, but he’s no Khavalov. This should be a showcase matchup for Khavalov as the PFL looks to showcase 135ers next year for the first time. I think he outclasses Cleiver wherever this fight goes, ultimately finishing him in impressive fashion.
Official Prediction: Renat Khavalov via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
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