Keys to Victory: Anthony Smith can do the impossible at UFC 235
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The highly anticipated light heavyweight title bout between Jon Jones and Anthony Smith is set to take place this Saturday, March 2, in the main event at UFC 235.
Jon Jones had just recently made his return to the Octagon in December 2018, against former opponent and long-time rival, Alexander Gustafsson. Jon was victorious in this bout, winning by way of third-round TKO to reclaim his light heavyweight title.
Anthony Smith last fought in the Octagon in October 2018, against former title challenger and light heavyweight contender, Volkan Oezdemir. Smith was victorious in this bout, winning by way of third-round submission, cementing himself as the true number-one contender for the 205-pound championship.
Now, I know what you’re all thinking, why is the UFC’s pound-for-pound #1 defending his belt against Anthony Smith, a fighter who is 31-13 and more-or-less appeared out of nowhere?
At this stage, most people have already counted Smith out of the fight. Most people are giving him absolutely no chance at defeating Jon Jones on Saturday night. And that’s just fine. I intend to explain just how Anthony Smith will be able to defeat Jones on Saturday night.
Let’s jump right into some analysis here:
I want to look into the past a bit, highlighting both Jones and Smith’s most recent fights. With Jones, he has shown tendencies in both of his last two fights, things which I believe can be exposed by Smith. For example, when Jones fought Daniel Cormier at UFC 214, it seemed as though he took the first two rounds to strike and establish a pace. And by the third-round, Jones was comfortable and looking for the finish. This happens with a lot of his opponents.
Another example, in his rematch with Gustafsson at UFC 232, Jones took the first two rounds to warm himself up, establish a pace and create a distance between him and Gus. Jones created distance in round 1 and it began to seem as though Gus just couldn’t land any of his shots. By round 3, Jones was very comfortable, confident and looking for the finish.
If there’s one thing I can say right now about Jones, he is excellent at doing this. Jones has an 84-inch reach and he definitely does well at using it to his advantage. Like he’s supposed to.
With all of this being said, Anthony Smith may literally be his kryptonite.
Smith brings an intense pressure into all of his fights. He doesn’t allow his opponents to close him off and neutralize his hands. Smith doesn’t allow his opponents to establish the pace that they want to fight at. Basically, he goes out there with a clear mind and fights his fight. Another thing which Smith possesses, that I believe will be a huge factor in this fight, is his strong chin. That guy can really take a shot. He absorbs so many shots and keeps coming forward.
For example, in the Volkan fight, we saw Smith engage Volkan on the feet for the first two rounds. And he wasn’t afraid of Volkan’s power. He wasn’t afraid of striking in the pocket with Volkan either. There were moments in the fight where Volkan was landing shots and it looked like Smith might’ve been in some trouble. But he doesn’t worry about this. Smith almost encourages his opponents to throw their best shots and welcomes them to the ground.
Smith has an impressive ground game but it’s not so much about what he does do, it’s more about what he doesn’t do. He doesn’t panic. Many fighters are afraid of being taken down because they know they don’t have the skills to defend submissions, defend against grappling techniques and wrestle with their opponent. Smith does very well in this department. He is able to handle himself against grapplers and he gets back to his feet. We saw this in his fight with Andrew Sanchez, when he was still at middleweight. Basically, any time that Smith is being attacked by his opponent, whether it be through any sort of striking, grappling or wrestling attempt, Smith manages himself very well and he can keep calm.
His mental state will be a huge factor on Saturday in his fight with Jon Jones. Smith will be able to succeed where so many others have failed. And this will be largely due to his mentality going into all of his fights. His calm nature, positive outlook and attitude toward being able to ‘fight his fight’ will be the major key. Smith needs to go in there Saturday night and treat it as if he isn’t fighting the P4P #1 fighter in the world. He needs to treat it like just another fight. And he already has that mentality.
I believe that if Smith can close the distance early-on and overwhelm Jon, he gets it done and shocks the world. Over the years, most of these fighters have been mentally defeated before ever entering the Octagon with Jon. But Smith isn’t that guy. He can do this.
His intense pressure and fight mentality will be the answer to the impossible riddle, that is Jon Jones. With all that being said, I’ll be going with Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith by TKO.
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Follow our writer Kevin Mahoney (@KeysRealTalk).
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