How does Dustin Poirier pull off the upset against Khabib Nurmagomedov?
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Dustin Poirier won the interim lightweight championship at UFC 236. He defeated Max Holloway, the featherweight champion, who was attempting to become a champ in both divisions at the same time.
The numbers in this fight tell a different story when you break the fight down.
When you look at the numbers, Max landed more and threw more total strikes, outpaced Dustin in significant strikes and strikes to the body. Dustin landed more shots to the head and legs and had one successful takedown attempt.
The numbers in this fight can be thrown out of the window when Dustin takes on Khabib Nurmagomedov, the recognized lightweight champion, at UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi. The reason you can discount the numbers from the Holloway fight is because Max is a striker and prefers to stand and exchange whereas Khabib wants to take his opponent down and maul him on the canvas.
What strategy should Dustin employ to pull off the upset?
First, Dustin has a definite advantage in the striking department. Khabib has improved his striking game since entering the UFC, but his striking is no where on the same level as Poirier’s. “The Diamond” will need to establish his jab early in the fight while mixing in some leg kicks. If he can get Khabib in the clinch some, short elbows and knees will allow him to break from the grasp of the champ.
Next, Poirier will need to concentrate on his takedown defense leading up to this fight. In his two fights against Eddie Alvarez, once he was taken down, he had problems getting back to his feet. Poirier doesn’t want to fight Khabib from his back (although Poirer could throw some submission attempts from his back). If he is taken down, he will need to have some scramble moves in his pocket to get back to his feet quickly or he will be playing into Khabib’s strength, which is his wrestling/grappling game.
Lastly, but more importantly, Dustin will need to have Khabib thinking rather than fighting. What I mean by this, he needs to do something Khabib won’t see coming. I know this is going to sound crazy, but if I were in Dustin’s corner, I would encourage him to go for a takedown early in the fight. If he could land a takedown on Khabib it would give him confidence and also make Khabib think. Dustin is going to have to bring out everything he can to try to pull out this win.
Dustin will be a big underdog going into this fight. He has the tools to pull off this upset. Poirier needs to be dominant in the striking game, his training should focus on take down defense/scrambling to get back to his feet, and finally make Khabib think and become a bit hesitant in the octagon.
If Dustin implores this strategy, he will become the undisputed lightweight champion of the world.
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