UFC 311: Main Card Predictions

The first UFC pay-per-view of the year is finally upon us. As the promotion concludes their end-of-year hiatus, they return with one of the most stacked main cards in some time. UFC 311 will be the company’s first visit to the brand-new, state-of-the-art Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

The main event will see Islam Makhachev defend his championship against perhaps his toughest test to date in Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-headliner, Merab Dvalishvili makes his first bantamweight title defense against top contender, Umar Nurmagomedov. Aside from the two monster title fights, we also have a stacked main card featuring former champions and fan favorites.

UFC Lightweight Championship

Islam Makhachev (C) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (1)

Evan: I’m surprised with the amount of people that are overlooking Tsarukyan here. The fact he’s being listed as a +310 underdog by most Sportsbooks doesn’t feel right to me. Their first meeting back in April 2019 was extremely competitive, even though Makhachev clearly was the better fighter. They’ve both improved dramatically in the five years since. Arman has the physicality, athleticism, and grappling chops to make the takedowns difficult for Islam. His power also makes him a dangerous threat in the stand up game. The Dagastani champion’s striking skills are far more dynamic now though. I think Makhachev’s precision, counters, shot selection, and combinations on the feet will give him the slight edge. However, Tsarukyan is a live dog. I believe he will provide one of the stiffest challenges we’ve seen to Islam’s reign atop the 155-pound division.

Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision 

Lee: This lightweight championship matchup is five years in making since their first fight. Both men come from grappling-heavy backgrounds. So, which guy can be the more explosive striker? Arman is more dynamic on the feet. But, Islam is better technically, mixing in his slick setups. I really want to pick Arman but…

Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision

Marcos: Islam will have trouble on his takedown entries, given Arman’s stellar defense. Heck, based on the first time they fought, Arman may take Islam down himself. In the stand-up exchanges, I still heavily favor the much improved striking of the champion. While both fighters carry similar skills from their 2019 matchup, I believe Islam Makhachev has evolved more over the years. Makhachev’s pressure seemed to start wearing down Arman Tsarukyan by the end of fight one. I believe the same will happen in what is now five rounds instead of three.

Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via 5th-Round Submission 

Dawson: This highly anticipated rematch features the division’s best putting their respective progression to the test. Both fighters have made massive strides in their skills and approach inside the octagon. They have become more comfortable in their striking. I see this rematch looking quite similar to their 2019 fight as the two will engage in extremely competitive scrambles on the canvas and exchange strike-for-strike on the feet. Overall, I believe Makhachev will weather the early storm from an aggressive Tsarukyan and take the latter rounds over.

Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision

Mishal: This is the most dead even fight in ages. Their initial fight is amongst my favorites of 2019. It was a testament to how good Arman Tsarukyan is for pushing one of the greatest lightweights to ever do it, especially on short notice. But these are two very different fighters almost half a decade removed, and looking to make a statement. In terms of grappling, this is as even as it gets, the difference lies in the striking. Islam is the cleaner, technical striker, and has improved with each fight, out-striking the best in Poirier and Volkanovski previously. Tsarukyan has displayed tremendous power. But, not the level of efficiency on the feet as the champion, something that might define this fight. Especially over 25 minutes where the advantage leans in favor of Islam, based on experience.

Official Prediction: Islam Makhachev via Split Decision

UFC Bantamweight Championship

Merab Dvalishvili (C) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (2)

Evan: There’s been a lack of respect for Merab Dvalishvili going into this fight, that I don’t quite understand. Fans and pundits alike are already crowning Umar Nurmagomedov, anointing him as the bantamweight of this era a bit prematurely. But if anyone has the skills to defuse Dvalishvili’s tortuous pace and relentless grappling attack, it’s Nurmagomedov. His 100% takedown defense going up against the Georgian champ’s insane 6.09 takedowns average per 15 minutes rate, is the story of the matchup to me. The Dagastani challenger is also without question the more dynamic striker and submission threat of the two. I’m hesitantly picking Umar to dethrone Merab, simply because his overall versatility is greater. Although, I feel this will be far more competitive than most people are expecting it to be.

Official Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Split Decision 

Lee: This fight has the attention of MMA fans due to the contrast of styles, and Merab’s beef with Umar. Merab has seen all styles of fighters on his 11-fight win streak. But, Umar is considered the most well-rounded fighter in the Nurmagomedov camp. Can Umar stand up to Merab’s relentless pressure, cardio and wrestling base? Can Merab counter Umar’s Dagestani wrestling and timely striking? Merab will need to contain his emotions during the fight as overly emotional fighters tend to make costly mistakes.

Official Prediction: Merab Dvalishvilli via 4th-Round Submission

Marcos: This fight will be high-paced and ultra-competitive from start to finish. Yet, I just do not see a path to victory for Merab Dvalishvili. The champion’s ability to grab a hold of his opponents and control them will not work against someone like Umar Nurmagomedov. Much of Umar’s success has come against stationary targets. So, it will be interesting to see how he deals with Merab’s nonstop movement. I expect Nurmagomedov to edge out the champion with his superior striking and jiu-jitsu.

Official Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision 

Dawson: The Bantamweight division has an absolute banger of a title fight in store. I expect Dvalishvili’s time as champion to be short-lived as Nurmagomedov is expected to come out victorious. I see the challenger being one step ahead of the champion throughout the entire fight. Umar can effectively mix his offensive striking with defensive grappling. Expect the old cut near Merab’s eye to open as Umar peppers him on the feet. I see a wide range of leg and body kicks stifling the approach of the champion.

Official Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision

Mishal: We may witness the rise of a new bantamweight phenomenon with this one. Similar to all his fights, Merab is going to make this one with a break-neck pace and extremely high output. The champion’s cardio and resiliency makes him amongst my favorites to watch in the UFC. But, his opponent poses challenges for him that will make this extremely difficult to win with that style. Umar has killer striking accuracy, never been taken down in the UFC, and has the ability to submit any opponent. That’s enough to negate a lot of what Merab has done to all his opponents. I can easily see him catching Merab after negating his suffocating offense… Especially with how evolved his striking is becoming the more we see him. While we should never count out any champion, I struggle to see this fight going any other way.

Official Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision 

Light Heavyweight Bout

Jiří Procházka (2) vs. Jamahal Hill (3)

Evan: I find Jamahal Hill as annoying as most fans do. I can’t remember a fighter who has handled a loss worse than he has. Regardless, he’s still a very talented fighter, and this feels like a great matchup for him to bounce back. While Procházka has a frenetic arsenal of offensive abilities, his defense is non-existent. According to UFC Stats, Jiri absorbs an absurd 5.59 strikes per minute. Between how hittable he is, and his overall tendency to fight with reckless abandon, that seems like a recipe for disaster against a striker like Hill. I’m siding with Jamahal’s superior fight IQ, decision making, and overall striking skills here. Look for him to get an empathic KO in his return to the octagon.

Official Prediction: Jamahal Hill via 1st or 2nd-Round KO

Lee: Both fighters are coming off TKO losses to titleholder Alex Pereira. Hill is the better striker going into this potential title eliminator. Procházka brings his unusual orthodox fighting style into this fight along with an 80″ reach. The majority of the fight will be contested on the feet and…

Official Prediction: Jamahal Hill via 3rd-Round KO/TKO

Marcos: A fight between two of the better light heavyweights on the planet will almost certainly end in a finish. While Procházka boasts some underrated abilities on the ground, it is usually his stand-up that gets the job done. Combine that with Hill’s knockout ability, and you get a very unpredictable fight. No disrespect to Jamahal, but I just think Jiri is the far more technical striker who will find his openings. Despite the slight edge I give to Procházka, he must be very careful of someone with the power and sneaky athleticism of Hill. I can see Prochazka hurting Hill on the feet and ending it with a submission on the ground.

Official Prediction: Jiří Procházka via 3rd-Round Submission 

Dawson: I believe many fans and pundits are overlooking Hill simply because of some of his antics outside of the cage since his defeat to Pereira. I see Hill getting back to his winning ways with a clean knockout performance over the aggressive and awkward striker in Procházka.

Official Prediction: Jamahal Hill via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Mishal: What are the odds that this one makes it all 3 rounds? A fight that is sure to be packed with chaos between two fighters carrying the heaviest hands in the division outside of the champion, Alex Pereira. Either man can legitimately win this in my eyes. Neither are impossible to hit. Both have been cracked in the past and consistently look for the finish no matter who the opponent is. If Jiri’s defense has someone improved since the second Pereira fight, he should win this. However, Hill is the more technically sound of the two, and his superior IQ in the cage might give him an edge here that many don’t seem to acknowledge.

Official Prediction: Jamahal Hill via 3rd-Round KO/TKO

Lightweight Bout

Beneil Dariush (9) vs. Renato Moicano (10)

Evan: On paper, these two are about as evenly matched as you can get. The biggest question surrounding this fight is how compromised is Dariush at this point in his career? Now 35 years old, coming off a year long layoff, and back-to-back KO losses, it’s hard not to have doubts. Especially because Moicano is on fire right now, as he’s riding a four-fight winning streak. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Brazilian contender batter Beneil on the feet or get superior positioning on the ground, where his top game offense is suffocating. With that being said, I’m going to take a flyer on Dariush here. I think this fight looks similar to Moicano’s loss to RDA, where he was severely out-wrestled. I like Dariush to secure several takedowns, control Renato for a majority of the fight, and land heavier shots on the feet.

Official Prediction: Beneil Dariush via Split Decision 

Lee: This lightweight bout is an excellent one, because both guys are going in opposite directions inside the top 10. Can Dariush find his winning ways or will Moicano solidify his name as future star in the division?

Official Prediction: Renato Moicano via Split Decision

Marcos: Luke Rockhold made a fantastic point when suggesting how big momentum can be in this sport. Right now it seems like the wheels are turning for Renato Moicano. As for Beneil Dariush, he has kind of fallen into a bit of a slump. The southpaw style does not serve Dariush well in this fight considering that Moicano has just beaten three southpaws in a row. Skill for skill, this is about as even of a matchup as you’re going to get in the lightweight division. A year ago, I would’ve bet the house on Dariush. But it now seems like Moicano has come into his own.

Official Prediction: Renato Moicano via Split Decision 

Dawson: “Money” Moicano has quickly rejuvenated his career at lightweight by cultivating a large fanbase online and with impressive performances inside the cage. I see his hot streak at 155 continuing against the experienced veteran Beneil Dariush. Moicano has shown elite grappling in his last two wins. He has battered the likes of Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner once on the ground. It’s hard to gauge what version of Dariush we can expect come fight night. That said, I see Moicano wrestling Dariush to the ground and working for top position. Once on top, Moicano will rain down nasty elbows on the face of Dariush.

Official Prediction: Renato Moicano via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Mishal: Easily the most overlooked fight on the entire card, and a banger regardless of which way it swings. Dariush is coming off two horrendous back-to-back knockouts. It has placed him in a position that’ll lead to him cementing his place in the division… Or based on his words, calling it quits. Being up against the surging Renato Moicano, doesn’t present him with an easy task. ‘‘Money’’ Moicano has all the momentum and looked absolutely fantastic in his last 3 performances.

Official Prediction: Renato Moicano via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Middleweight Bout

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Evan: This is a great main card opener. The stylistic clash between these two is very intriguing. Both are lanky and can grapple, but Holland has a pretty clear advantage to me in the striking department. He’s got slicker boxing skills and better pop in his punches. I could easily see RDR out wrestling him though, overwhelming Kevin with vicious ground-and-pound that eventually sets up a submission. However, I think Holland will fight behind his jab, land the bigger shots on the feet, and win enough scrambles to defeat the former two-division ONE FC champion.

Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 3rd-Round TKO

Lee: Reinier de Ridder is getting right back to action after his underwhelming UFC debut. Kevin Holland is coming off a TKO due to a corner stoppage in his last fight against Roman Dolidze. Although de Ridder submitted fellow Jiu-Jitsu specialist, Gerald Meerschaert, can he hang with Holland’s superb striking? My only concern with Holland is if he is taken down can he get back to his feet? With a win, de Ridder could be matched up with a top 15 opponent next. If Holland wins, he will avoid being relegated to fighting on the prelims.

Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Marcos: Reinier de Ridder definitely showed some flaws in his striking that Kevin Holland may be able to capitalize on. Despite Holland’s submission abilities, they should pale in comparison to Reinier’s grappling. Although the far superior puncher, Kevin Holland’s lackluster takedown defense will cost him this fight as it has on several occasions. I will say if Reinier takes the same risks that he did against Meerschaert, then Holland can definitely knock him out. Regardless, I think the UFC newcomer uses his size and attributes to secure his second win in the promotion.

Official Prediction: Reinier de Ridder via 2nd-Round Submission

Dawson: The extremely active and experienced Holland will look to get back on the winning track against de Ridder. That said, I see Holland making a splash in this fight, as he holds the striking advantage and has faced stiffer competition. I believe Holland will use the opening round to feel out de Ridder, who will look to initiate clinches against the cage. Once Holland weathers the early grappling attempts from De Ridder, expect the sharp and lanky striker to pick at the grappler until finding a finishing sequence on the feet.

Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 2nd-Round KO/TKO

Mishal: I could eat my words, but this fight doesn’t feel close. The UFC is clearly testing de Ridder, using the Kevin Holland litmus test as they do with many prospects. But this one doesn’t fill me with confidence. de Ridder’s previous performance against Meerschart drew comparisons do Du Plessis as a result of his bizarre fighting style. But, I can see being a threat to a veteran in Kevin Holland. The power isn’t there, his striking isn’t nearly unorthodox enough to phase Holland in the way MVP managed to last year. Holland has made strides in his grappling that I can’t see presenting openings for de Ridder, compared to what happened years back. While Holland might be the most inconsistent fighter in the UFC, this is one I think he should be able to use his veteran time in the octagon to win.

Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 3rd-Round KO/TKO

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