UFC 307: Main Card Predictions
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The UFC makes its fourth stop in Salt Lake City, Utah, with an exciting UFC 307 card. Utah has emerged as a new hotspot destination for the promotion since their first event there in August of 2016. Since then, we’ve seen spectacular moments such as Leon Edwards’ stunning knockout of Kamaru Usman at UFC 278. How will these crazy matchups play out? How will the elevation affect the fighters? These are all questions that will be answered on October 5th.
Alex Pereira is back in action yet again as he defends his light heavyweight title against a new contender in Khalil Rountree. Newly crowned champion Raquel Pennington and Julianna Peña will also go at it to determine the queen of the bantamweight division. With another stacked card, fight fans are in for a treat. Check out our staff predictions:
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Alex Pereira (C) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (8)
Evan: While many people don’t think Khalil Rountree Jr. deserves this title shot, I think it’s an exciting matchup. This should be fun for as long as it lasts and I wouldn’t be all that shocked if Khalil surprised his detractors here by how well he might do against Pereira. Rountree Jr. has really come into his own recently, riding a five-fight winning streak. It seems to have elevated his confidence in the process…
He’s got a puncher’s chance if anything, and who knows what can happen if he lands first on Pereira. However, he’s also been knocked out in the past by both Ion Cutelaba and Johnny Walker. I think Alex is a far more superior striker than both of those men. He’s got so many ways to finish the fight on the feet, and everything Poatan throws from whatever limb he chooses, feels like it has nuclear power behind it. Khalil’s willingness to oblige the Brazilian champion in a toe to toe striking battle will ultimately be his downfall.
Official Prediction: Alex Pereira via 2nd or 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Lee: This fight comes down to the UFC giving their new golden champion a favorable matchup against a guy coming off suspension. I get it, the biggest fight to make for Alex Pereira is Jon Jones and he needs to continue on his streak of dominance to add more spice for that. Enter Khalil Rountree Jr. In those five fights, only Anthony Smith would be considered a contender. Rountree Jr. is a striker with some ground skills, but not enough to threaten the champ.
Official Prediction: Alex Pereira via 1st-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: The bottom line here is that this is a bad matchup for Khalil Rountree. He has never shot for a takedown in his career and will look to stand and bang with Alex Pereira. The only threat I see for Khalil is his power, but even that will be negated by Pereira’s world-class kickboxing. Rountree has openly admitted that he will look to stand with Alex and give the viewers an exciting fight. As a fan, I can appreciate that, but it will ultimately spell disaster for the new contender. Pereira’s speed, timing, and devastating leg kicks should be the end of Rountree by round two.
Official Prediction: Alex Pereira via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship
Raquel Pennington (C) vs. Julianna Peña (1)
Evan: I’m not all that intrigued with this matchup personally. I could see it being a dud come fight night. But I also think there is a chance it exceeds expectations as well. This comes down to who dictates the grappling exchanges, is more offensive in the clinch, and if Peña can force Pennington into a constant brawl. Overall, I feel Julianna is the more naturally gifted fighter of the two. She’s got better punching power, scrambling instincts, and finishing prowess than Raquel does.
However, she also hasn’t fought in over two years now. That lengthy layoff is going to impact her performance in my opinion. It should be a winnable fight for her, but I’m going to side with Pennington slightly. The combination of Peña’s inactivity, and Raquel’s ability to seemingly always make a fight ugly in a way that benefits her, gives the current champ a narrow edge for me in what could be a much more entertaining title fight than most expect.
Official Prediction: Raquel Pennington via Unanimous Decision
Lee: Pennington is the better fighter of the two. But Peña, a former champion, has fought the best of the best. This fight comes down to can Peña slow down Pennington’s pace? If Peña can take her down and make her fight off her back while avoiding submission attempts she has a great chance of winning back the gold. I think Pennington will use constant movement behind her jab to frustrate Peña while showcasing her technical striking game.
Official Prediction: Raquel Pennington via Unanimous Decision
Marcos: Make no mistake, these are two highly skilled fighters who just so happen to have very boring styles. Peña is somewhat of a well-rounded fighter whose never say die attitude makes up for a lot of her technical deficiencies. Pennington will put a slow and steady pressure on you until she grinds her opponent away little by little. If Peña can overcome a 2-year layoff and make it difficult for Pennington to keep her against the cage, then she can win. I just believe Raquel will control the fight more over the course of 25 minutes because there’s no way I see a finish here.
Official Prediction: Raquel Pennington via Split Decision
Bantamweight Bout
José Aldo (10) vs. Mario Bautista (11)
Evan: Mario Bautista is probably one of the most underrated fighters in the ever loaded bantamweight division. He’s 8-1 in his last night Octagon appearances and it feels not many fans or pundits have even noticed. The improvements to his game have been drastic. According to UFC Stats, Mario lands an absurd 5.69 significant strikes per minute. His offensive output, grappling ability, and pace make him a formidable foe for Aldo to deal with.
I just believe the King of Rio has found a way to fight back against father time more than people expected him to. With José’s legendary jab and low kicks, I think will stimy Mario’s offense enough to where he will be the one controlling the pace of the fight instead. His absurd takedown defense too will give Bautista another barrier to get past. I like Aldo to pull off the victory here in a barn burner.
Official Prediction: José Aldo via Split Decision
Lee: I have to say this is the fight I am most excited to see. Aldo, once known for his hellacious leg kicks, has become a superb boxer. His head movement, punch timing, and experience has made him a joy to watch. Bautista will need to start fast using faints, head movement and constantly switching up his stances. So don’t believe that he’ll need to take Aldo down to win this fight…
Official Prediction: José Aldo via Split Decision
Marcos: Since his return from retirement, Jose Aldo has reminded us that he is still one of the best bantamweights on the planet. The Brazilian legend still has some of the most crisp striking and takedown defense in the game. This is a matchup with the recipe for a potential fight of the night candidate. Mario Bautista is a very active striker who has no problems moving forward in a dog fight. Aldo will have trouble with the high pace and volume of Bautista as he will look to replicate some of the things that gave Aldo trouble in recent fights. I think the forward pressure and speed of Bautista will be too much against an aging fighter who will have to slow down at some point.
Official Prediction: Mario Bautista via Split Decision
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Ketlen Vieira (2) vs. Kayla Harrison (3)
Evan: It has been great to see Kayla Harrison finally in the UFC, flourishing at a level she has always belonged on. Watching her maul former UFC champion, Holly Holm, in her promotional debut had to be an extremely validating moment for her. Although, I do expect the two-time Olympic gold medalist to face much more resistance here against Ketlen Vieira.
I really think there’s a chance this could end up being Kayla’s toughest fight since her loss to PFL champ, Larissa Pacheco, in their trilogy bout back in 2022. Ketlen has the grappling acumen, striking skills, and takedown defense to give the UFC’s new bell of the ball a handful of problems. But I’m not betting against Kayla. Her takedown arsenal against the cage, and physicality should be the difference in this one.
Official Prediction: Kayla Harrison via Unanimous Decision
Lee: Kayla Harrison on her beat everyone up tour to bring Amanda Nunes out of retirement. Vieira is better on the mat than Holly Holm, but her defense needs work. In this fight, Harrison should keep this fight standing displaying her A-plus striking. She is going to hurt Vieira on the feet, allowing her to incorporate her ground game. My only grievance with this fight is Harrison being able to rehydrate to over 155 pounds which in my opinion, it is a competitive advantage.
Official Prediction: Kayla Harrison via 2nd-Round Submission
Marcos: Kayla Harrison will face her toughest test to date since entering the UFC when she takes on top contender Vieira. Similar to Kayla, Ketlen is a big, strong woman. But, she also likes to march forward with heavy shots and effective takedowns. Kayla’s striking continues to look better, and we know what she brings to the table once she gets a hold of her opponents. No disrespect to Viera, but in a battle of two physically imposing women, Harrison will show why there are levels to this game. Expect Kayla to use her top-level judo and wrestling fundamentals to get the job done.
Official Prediction: Kayla Harrison via Unanimous Decision
Middleweight Bout
Roman Dolidze (10) vs. Kevin Holland (15)
Evan: I genuinely have no clue how to assess this matchup. Dolidze is a big, powerful middleweight who can crack. Holland is more well-rounded, and can finish a fight in multiple ways. Both guys are durable too, so this is a tricky one. Kevin is way better on the ground in my opinion. However, I’m not sure he’s got the wrestling chops to take Roman down when he wants or needs to. I’ll hesitantly side with Dolidze because I see this staying on the feet for the most part, and his power altering the outcome in his favor at some point.
Official Prediction: Roman Dolidze via 2nd-Round KO/TKO
Lee: This fight has the chance to be very exciting or very boring, which makes it a tough fight to pick. Roman Dolidze is a very technical fighter that fights at a slow pace. Whereas, Holland is always pushing the pace looking to finish his opponent. With all of Holland’s fights, we wonder how he will fare if he is taken down. This fight will be no different… Dolidze has 1.26 takedown (TD) average, 40% TD accuracy, and 1.14 submission average. Holland will need to use his five-inch reach advantage and better striking to keep Dolidze at bay.
Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via 3rd-Round KO/TKO
Marcos: Roman Dolidze is a legit grappler with some serious power in his hands, meaning he can beat you anywhere the fight goes. Kevin Holland is a quick, accurate striker who has really struggled with his takedown defense in the past. While Holland is no scrub in the jiu-jitsu department, he can really be exposed by a specialist on the ground. Especially someone who is superior in BJJ, such as Dolidze… The fact that Dolidze is a better grappler and can actually finish Holland standing makes this a bad matchup for the “Trailblazer” at UFC 307. Not to say Holland can’t win, but Dolidze is dangerous no matter where the fight goes.
Official Prediction: Roman Dolidze via Unanimous Decision
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