This Week In MMA: Rookie Betting Advice
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I’m not a professional gambler, and really not a gambler at all. With that said, I feel I have a good grasp of the sport. I wouldn’t advise anyone to follow these bets, as they are some I won’t even be placing. We all know that MMA betting is a tough task, so here’s some of the best bets this week…
I’m also using lines from Betonline, but you could find even better odds from other books.
ACA 136 – This Saturday
In the main event of ACA 136 is Imran Bukuev vs. Aren Akopyan for the vacant flyweight title. Aren Akopyan is currently the favorite sitting at -165. This is gonna be a competitive fight, but I think Akopyan is levels above so there is still value in his line. I feel very confident in Akopyan coming into this fight.
I don’t reccomend betting on heavyweight fights, but Denis Smoldarev is only -120 against Daniel James, who is 40-years-old. There is a concern with the chin of Smoldaraev, and James can crack. But outside of that, Smoldarev should be around -250 at least. The Russian is much faster and way more athletic. James is flat-footed and Smoldarev should easily pick away at the American.
I hate betting on these bigger guys, but this line is a steal.
Bellator 275 – This Friday
Once again, I don’t like betting heavyweight fights but Gokhan Saricam being -275 is absurd. Yeah, Saricam destroyed his last two opponents, but those guys were low-level guys. Now he’s fighting a 19-fight veteran in Kirill Sidelnikov. It’s basically if Saricam doesn’t find the finish in round one, Sidelnikov will take over. Sidelnikov has just fought much better guys and I can’t see the wild striking of Saricam catching the Russian.
Brett Johns is one of the locks of the entire card in my opinion. He’s sitting at -240 which is still a good line. His opponent Khurshed Kakhorov is entertaining but no where near the level of Johns. Johns is far better with the wrestling and grappling. He’s even the more proficient striker… Can’t see a way he loses this fight.
Gegard Mousasi is a pioneer and legend of the sport and he’s the middleweight champion for a reason. With that said, I really like Austin Vanderford in this fight. Vanderford is +190 and rightfully so. Vanderford has the pressure, wrestling, and gas tank to nutralize Mousasi and that’s the recipe to beat the champ. Fans may not like the style of Vanderford, but you cant discredit what he’s able to do.
Fight Club Rush 11 – This Saturday
Samuel Bark isn’t known in MMA, but came into the sport off of an extensive muay thai background. Of what I can find, he’s had around 69 muay thai fights and a 50-16-3 record. He has excellent striking and is someone to watch for as he’s been destroying guys since turning pro. His opponent Denis Jurakic does have the wrestling to maybe expose Bark.
After watching Jurakic, I didn’t come out impressed. Yes, he’s a strong wrestler, but he lacks the technique. I’m much more impresed with the stand up of Bark then the wrestling and ground game of Jurakic. Bark right now is -130 and as it is hard to bet on these untested guys — he’s fighting one even more untested.
Fury FC 58 – This Sunday
Former UFC fighter Justin Scoggins is fighting again in the U.S. for the first time since 2018 when he was in the UFC. He’s always been an outstanding karate style fighter but his grappling defense has always held him back.
Bad news for him is he’s fighting a high-level grappler Levi Mowles. Mowles is 16-4 with seven submission wins. There is no doubt I believe Mowles can take Scoggins down and once he does Mowles is in control. Mowles is only -130 and that’s a great price to snag.
LFA 125 – This Friday
Outside of betting heavyweight fights, another thing I like to stay away from is betting women’s MMA. No knock on the talent at all, it’s just me bad at predicting the women’s fights. Funny enough, my two favorite bets on this card are two women.
Loveth Young is someone I have a lot of praise for. Her 3-1-1 record may not look too appealing, but that loss was to UFC fighter Vanessa Demopoulos. I believe she won that though… Young has a background in boxing and in kickboxing where she won titles. She is a cerebral striker and her power is unmatchable.
On the other side is a completely different style from Jaqueline Amorim. The Brazilian Amorim is a highly touted jiu-jitsu ace. Some of her accomplishments in BJJ: IBJJF World Champion, IBJJF World No-Gi Champion, and more. So far in MMA, she’s 4-0 and with three submissions and a sole knockout victory.
Although I really like both women, Young is my pick and I’m confident. Young has a huge advantage on the feet and although Amorim is the better grappler, there is zero evidence that she can take Young down and submit her. Amorim has finished all her fights in the first round, so she don’t have that cage experience and hasn’t had to fight through adversity or dig deep. Young is the pick and at +105 that is a no-brainer.
The other bet I like is Hilarie Rose at +100 against Ashley Nichols. Both don’t have great-looking records, but they both have lost to good competition. In a close fight, why not back the dog? Plus Nichols hasn’t won a fight since 2017… Rose is someone I actually like a lot, but she just tends to fade as the fight goes. I do like her in this fight, but can’t be too confident.
Oktagon 31 – This Saturday
Losene Keita still fighting lower level competition and being still at -160 is a gift. I will say, his opponent Ronald Paradeiser is a step-up in competition. But he’s showed every time he had a step up in competition, he’s failed.
Keita is a dangerous dude that has improved fight to fight. He also has a very high ceiling. You can’t pass on these odds with a bright prospect.
UFC Vegas 49 – This Saturday
A pair between two flyweight off of last season’s Contender Series will square off in Vegas. Both in which I thought lost their fight. The difference was I wasn’t too impressed with Victor Altamirano, but was impressed with who he’s fighting in Carlos Hernandez. What Altamirano can do to win this fight is out-point or submit Hernandez. I like the more aggressive and powerful fighter in Hernandez. I think he’s better everywhere and I like him at -143.
I know Joel Alvarez is getting a lot of love, but Arman Tsarukyan is lightyears above him. There is an advantage with the size of Alvarez. But Tsarukyan is the better striker and where Alvarez is at his best (being on the mat), that’s where Tsarukyan has the biggest advantage. I just can’t see Alvarez winning this. You may rather want Tsarukyan in a parlay since he’s -226, but I like him straight moneyline.
If I had to pick my favorite prop bet, it would be Gregory Rodrigues by submission at +325. He has excellent jiu-jitsu and has a significant advantage on the mat against Armen Petrosyan. The problem is Rodrigues has fallen in love with his striking. He does have a fragile chin and a refrined kickboxer/striker like Petrosyan will make him pay.
Petrosyan has a massive issue with takedown defense, so if Rodrigues commits to grappling, he will get the submission.
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